Market dynamics after the 2025 Bitcoin halving: market maturation transformation led by institutions
The fourth halving of Bitcoin in 2024 (block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC / block) will lead to 18 months from mid to late 2025, during which the market exhibits dynamics starkly different from the previous three halving cycles — in this phase of price retracement (cumulative drop of about 28%, far lower than the historical average of 45% retracement after halving), institutional investors and whale holders (addresses holding more than 1000 BTC) dominated strategic accumulation, fundamentally rewriting the previously retail-driven volatility pattern, marking the formal entry of the Bitcoin market into a stage of institutional maturity.
From on-chain data, during the price correction period (June to October 2025), the number of whale addresses holding 1000+ BTC increased by 12.7% compared to the previous month, with a total increase of over 380,000 BTC (approximately $172 billion at that time). Meanwhile, the net outflow from exchange wallets continued to expand, with an average monthly net outflow reaching 42,000 BTC, the highest since 2021. This indicates that whales are transferring crypto assets from trading wallets to cold storage, reflecting a long-term allocation logic. The actions of institutional funds are even clearer: Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw a 9.3% increase in holdings during the correction period, while total net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs exceeded $89 billion, with ETFs from traditional asset management institutions like BlackRock and Invesco accounting for 62%. Companies like MicroStrategy and Tesla took advantage of the correction to increase their holdings, with the former adding 15,000 BTC, raising the proportion of Bitcoin in their total asset allocation to 41%.
The shift in market structure is also reflected in volatility and capital stability: during the correction period in 2025, the average 30-day volatility of Bitcoin was 21.8%, a 50% decrease from the same period after the 2020 halving (43.5%), and even lower than the S&P 500 Index's volatility during the same period (24.1%); the retail trading volume proportion fell from a peak of 47% in 2021 to 18%, while the proportion of large orders (above 10 BTC) increased to 65%. In the derivatives market, the proportion of perpetual contracts led by institutions reached 73%, far exceeding the proportion of contract trading dominated by retail investors (12%).
The core logic of this transformation lies in the dual evolution of supply-demand structure and investor structure: after the halving, Bitcoin's annual inflation rate dropped to 1.7%, lower than gold's (1.8%) supply scarcity, attracting institutions to allocate it as an anti-inflation asset; meanwhile, policy dividends such as the approval of U.S. spot ETFs and the implementation of the EU's regulatory framework for crypto assets (MiCA) further lowered the entry barriers for institutions. On-chain metrics show that during the correction period, the SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remained in the range of 0.92-1.05, indicating that most investors did not panic sell, but rather institutions actively absorbed selling pressure within a reasonable valuation range (MVRV ratio of 1.8, at the historical 30% quantile), forming a positive cycle of 'correction - accumulation - stabilization'.
In summary, the market dynamics after the Bitcoin halving in 2025 essentially represent a deep transformation of the capital structure from 'retail speculation dominance' to 'institutional allocation dominance'. The continuous inflow of large-scale institutional funds, the strategic lock-up by whales, and the long-term holding tendency reflected by on-chain data have collectively weakened the irrational volatility of the market, pushing Bitcoin to evolve from a high-risk speculative asset to an alternative asset with both scarcity and allocation value, laying the foundation for the long-term healthy development of the crypto market. #加密市场回调
