10.31
The market originally anticipated "interest rate cuts + liquidity injection", but the result was only "interest rate cuts + waiting period". Liquidity did not immediately flow back, instead causing the market to fall into a wait-and-see and uncertain state.
Although theoretically, interest rate cuts benefit asset prices, the market often requires clear liquidity injections to truly change direction.
Yesterday was obviously a signal from the Federal Reserve to slow down tightening, and they have not yet started injecting liquidity; on another level, the meeting between China and the US was merely a trade easing, and confidence has not been restored.
Therefore, I believe that we are currently in a liquidity vacuum period, and Crypto can only continue to bleed.
Since October 11, I have been advising everyone to watch more and act less, because I think we need to wait for a real opportunity. A true market rally often occurs when:
1. Liquidity officially flows back (QE restarts);
2. The US dollar index (DXY) starts to decline;
3. Global risk appetite increases (stocks and bonds rise together).
BTC
Bitcoin experienced another wave of downward pressure yesterday, causing a significant amount of market leverage to be liquidated. Bitcoin has once again reached the reversal level of this market wave. At 106500, if we follow our expectations to buy in, we are already in profit. After experiencing the crash on October 11, we see that this position is clearly undergoing a wide range of fluctuations. Currently, 106500 has tested the bottom four times without breaking, so we need to pay attention to the short-term opportunities in this wave. In summary, we need to keep an eye on whether this daily level will form a double bottom oscillation before making directional choices, because currently the weekly level is also near the trend line, but it is waiting for the auxiliary indicators to approach the zero axis. Since tomorrow is the month-end closing, in summary, the closer we get to 106500, we can pay attention in batches; if it breaks below this level, we can exit on the rebound. Support is at 106500-105000, and resistance is at 111200-113400.
ETH
Ethereum is the same; the 3700 level has not been broken four times, so we need to pay attention to short-term bottom opportunities. As long as 3700 does not break, it is an opportunity; if it breaks, we exit on the rebound. Support is at 3710-3560, and resistance is at 3910-4050.
SOL
Solana should pay attention to the range between 176 and 190, especially near 176 to watch for bottom opportunities.
