To those who thought the market would surge short-term after QT ended at this FOMC

The October FOMC has passed.

There was nothing complicated. They cut rates this time but said December is uncertain, and QT will end starting December.

The overall market expectation was for rate cuts in October and December and QT ending in October.

This event fell short of expectations. Treasury yields rose and the cryptocurrency market declined.

If you thought Powell’s positive words and the FOMC would be an upward momentum, you need to study more

As I have continuously said, the Fed needs justification to end QT and switch to QE.

Recently, there was no issue in the market to justify that.

US-China relations were easing, regional bank insolvency issues were resolved, and employment data was not confirmable due to the shutdown.

There is no reason for the Fed to make positive remarks in this situation

But ending QT is a big trend and cannot be avoided.

That’s why I repeatedly said this FOMC would be positive from a ‘mid-term’ perspective.

The market still needs time to digest this event.

After today’s US-China talks, I still believe there is a high chance of a positive mid-term atmosphere in the market until year-end.

Whether a sharp drop event that justifies switching to quantitative easing will occur, or whether a slowdown in employment will trigger recession concerns and a mild correction will follow, is unknown,

but I still think the year-end is a time of opportunity.