In the context of the intertwining of volatility and narratives in the crypto market, Tom Lee's latest views provide a key perspective for the industry—the ongoing increase in on-chain activity not only validates Bitcoin's resilience but also provides a solid basis for significant market movements by the end of the year.
1. Bitcoin Resilience: 'Value Anchoring' Under Liquidation Shock
Tom Lee pointed out that cryptocurrencies have recently experienced the largest-scale liquidation deleveraging event in history, but Bitcoin's decline has only remained in the 3% - 4% range. This performance is highly similar to the logic of the gold market: if a similar shock were to occur in the gold market, the decline would also only be a few percentage points, and the market would see it as proof of 'value anchoring.' Bitcoin's current resistance to decline is an intuitive validation of its value attributes as 'digital gold,' providing underlying support for market confidence.
2. Ethereum Growth: 'On-chain vitality' driven by stablecoins
The widespread application of stablecoins has driven the continuous growth of Ethereum Layer 1 (base layer) and Layer 2 (scaling layer) network activities. However, the current coin prices have not yet fully reflected this fundamental improvement—the increase in on-chain activity has essentially laid the groundwork for significant market changes by the end of the year.
3. Industry Insights: The bidirectional validation of on-chain data and market confidence
Tom Lee's viewpoint provides important insights for the industry:
Technical Dimension: On-chain activities (such as trading volume, address activity, locked value, etc.) are the core indicators of the crypto market's 'fundamentals.' Their continued rise not only validates the activity level of the project ecosystem but also provides 'volume' support for the market; Market Dimension: The resilience of Bitcoin and the on-chain growth of Ethereum together constitute the dual logic of 'value anchoring + fundamental improvement,' providing dual validation of 'sentiment + fundamentals' for the year-end market; Ecological Dimension: Stablecoins, as the 'infrastructure' of the crypto ecosystem, have driven the growth of on-chain activities, which is essentially a reflection of the collaborative development of DeFi, NFT, GameFi, and other sectors, providing underlying momentum for the industry's long-term value.
Tom Lee's analysis has shown the potential for bidirectional validation between 'on-chain data' and 'market confidence' in the crypto market—when on-chain activity continues to rise, the resilience of Bitcoin and the fundamental improvements of Ethereum resonate, making the 'fundamental logic' of significant market changes by the end of the year increasingly clear. This perspective not only provides investors with a direction for 'tracking on-chain data' but also offers new ideas for understanding the interaction between 'technology and market' in the industry.#加密市场反弹
