When Putin's advisor's warning that 'the U.S. needs to rewrite the cryptocurrency rules' spread globally, the crypto world was suddenly thrown into chaos. The long-silent XRP was suddenly pushed to the forefront and was surprisingly assigned the role of 'saving $35 trillion in U.S. debt'—according to market estimates, to digest this astronomical debt, the price of XRP needs to soar from the current $3 to $983, an increase of 3200 times. This is not speculation; it is clearly a financial illusion detached from reality.
First, let's look at this jaw-dropping number: the scale of U.S. national debt has exceeded $35 trillion, equivalent to each American citizen bearing $100,000 in debt, with daily interest reaching $2 billion. Currently, the total circulation of XRP is about 53 billion, with a total market value of only $160 billion. Even if Ripple's company put all 35.6 billion XRP it holds into the market, at the current price, it could only cover $106.8 billion in debt, which is less than 0.3% of the total U.S. debt. To fill the $35 trillion hole, XRP's unit price must exceed $983, but this means its total market value would need to reach $52 trillion, far exceeding half of the current total market value of the global stock market (about $100 trillion). Such a scale cannot be supported under the existing financial system.
More importantly, the United States has never relaxed its stance on cryptocurrencies. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has repeatedly emphasized that 'crypto assets are not legal tender,' and the SEC has classified XRP as an 'unregistered security.' The litigation between both sides has dragged on for years, reaching a reluctant partial settlement only in 2023. Under such regulatory pressure, the notion of incorporating cryptocurrencies into the national strategic reserves is completely contrary to current U.S. policy.
Ripple's position is also full of contradictions. Of the 35.6 billion XRP it holds, nearly 20 billion are in custody, with only 1 billion released for circulation each month. If it were to sell off massively to save U.S. debt, it would not only trigger an immediate market crash but also destroy the business partnerships the company has built over many years (such as cross-border payment collaborations with over 100 global financial institutions). The dual constraints of shareholder interests and corporate strategy determine that such a scenario is fundamentally unfeasible.
Those extravagant 'price fantasies' do not stand up to scrutiny: the so-called 'XRP rising to $10,000 could serve as liquid capital for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)' ignores the fact that 114 countries are already developing their own CBDCs, among which China's digital yuan has covered 26 million public accounts, and the prototype testing of the digital dollar in the U.S. is also progressing, making it unnecessary to rely on third-party cryptocurrencies. As for claims like 'supporting the securities market at $100,000' or 'binding biometric data at $1 million,' they forcibly graft immature technological concepts—biometric payments in the EU are still strictly limited by the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and several states in the U.S. even prohibit companies from mandatorily collecting biometric information, with technology implementation expected to take over a decade.
The inherent fragility of the crypto market cannot be ignored. In 2022, the LUNA coin plummeted from $119 to $0.00015, and in 2023, the FTX exchange went bankrupt, evaporating $32 billion, all proving that this market lacks the stability to absorb trillions in funds. The fragmentation of global regulation further renders 'strategic reserves' mere talk: China has completely banned cryptocurrency trading, the EU has implemented strict access through the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation, and the regulatory power struggle between the SEC and CFTC in the U.S. is still unresolved. In this fragmented global governance context, no cryptocurrency can bear the heavy responsibility of being an 'international reserve asset.'
The warnings from the Russian side are not unfounded. If the U.S. attempts to shift the debt crisis by manipulating cryptocurrency rules, it fundamentally undermines the existing international monetary system. After the 2008 financial crisis, global vigilance against dollar hegemony has continued to rise. BRICS countries have launched local currency settlement mechanisms, and the use of the euro in energy trade has been steadily increasing. If cryptocurrencies are weaponized at this moment, it will only accelerate the global process of de-dollarization.
Whether XRP can truly rise does not depend on ridiculous price predictions, but on whether its technology can solve real problems—currently, its cross-border payment system, although applied in some developing countries, does not have an absolute advantage in processing speed compared to the traditional SWIFT system, and faces strict restrictions from various countries' anti-money laundering regulations. Legally, the shadow of the SEC's lawsuit has not fully dissipated; if it is ultimately determined to be a security, its liquidity will suffer a fatal blow.
Ultimately, this farce of 'XRP saving U.S. debt' is nothing but a product of capital speculation, technological fanaticism, and geopolitical maneuvering. In the ups and downs of the crypto space, what truly needs to be understood is not the wealth illusion at the peak of the bubble, but the reconstruction logic of the global financial system in the digital economy era—only transformations based on technological innovation, regulatory collaboration, and market trust can truly promote financial progress.
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