There is an old saying—markets are like springs; the longer they are compressed, the stronger the rebound.
Tonight's ETH is like a spring ignited by favorable CPI news, jumping sharply to the critical threshold—4,000 dollars!
But the question arises: is this the 'real start' of the main force, or a 'false move'? Don't forget, every time before a critical point, the operator loves to shake the confidence of retail investors first. The coming night may be a crucial window to determine whether ETH can break through 4200.
Looking back at today's daytime market
Today's daytime market is a typical example of 'wash and then pull'.
In the early session, ETH first dipped to the 3,690 line, short-term bears attempted to push down, but the buying at the bottom was extremely strong.
Starting to increase volume for a rebound in the afternoon, reaching a high of 4,030, then quickly beaten back to around 3,960.
This wave of movements seems like a roller coaster, but it is actually the main force's washout and probing—Bollinger Bands are opening, moving averages are turning, and trading volume is significantly increasing; the market structure is shifting from oscillation to bullish.
Market sentiment and news analysis
Tonight's CPI data at 20:30—core year-on-year rate is 3.0%, lower than the expected 3.1%, which is actually a signal of 'moderate inflation'.
What does it mean? Simply put:
Pressure from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has eased.
The US dollar is weakening, and risk assets are strengthening.
Funds are flowing back into the crypto market!
From the market sentiment perspective, panic sentiment is declining, and buying interest is starting to rise; this wave of data has become the best catalyst for bulls to challenge 4,000.
But be aware, the market is never changed by a single bullish candle, **the main force fears that you will excitedly rush in.** The real opportunities are often hidden in the moments of hesitation from others.
Today's operational direction logic
The logic is very simple— the main force is changing gears.
The daytime fluctuations are meant to clear out short-term float positions, allowing the market to re-establish itself at the psychological point of 4,000.
If it stabilizes above 4,000 (especially if the hourly K line closes three consecutive bullish candles), then the main upward wave is on the way.
If it can't break up for a while, a pullback to the 3,920—3,950 range will be an excellent buying point.
Short-term structure: Bollinger middle band turning upward, 5-day moving average providing support, and increasing trading volume; this is a signal combination before the launch.
Summary prediction: This week is highly likely to break through 4200!
I dare to say—unless it is pushed back below 3,880 tonight, it is almost a high probability event that ETH will break through 4,200 this week!
The positive CPI combined with the return of funds reinforces the narrative of 'Ethereum's recovery', while Bitcoin's consolidation period has officially led to Ethereum's catch-up cycle.
From a technical perspective, ETH has formed a combination pattern of 'bottom divergence + volume breakout', which is a sign of the start of a wave market.
Break down the actions of the main force + bullish logic
The two things the main force loves to do now:
1 At key points, create 'false breakouts' to trick short-term short positions into the market.
2 During the pullback, quietly consume the retail investors' panic selling.
So when you see the price being beaten down to 4,030, it is not that the bulls are weak, but rather the main force wants to wash out the floating profits first before pushing the main upward wave.
The main force's target has never been around 3,900, but rather to push higher and sell off in the 4,300—4,500 range!
Support logic:
Liquidity: US Treasury yields are declining, funds are flowing back into risk assets.
Technical aspect: short-term breakout structure has formed, Bollinger upper band is opening.
On the sentiment side: retail investors have not yet dared to fully enter, which means the bullish space is far from over.
Old Zhu's short-term operational strategy (practical + clear)
Turning point: 4,000—core area for bullish and bearish reversal
Support levels: 3,920 / 3,760
Resistance levels: 4,120 / 4,300
Strategy suggestion:
If it breaks through 4,000 with volume and closes steadily: lightly chase long, target 4,300–4,500.
If it peaks and falls back but the volume doesn't decline: buy on the pullback at 3,920, stop loss at 3,780.
If it closes below 4,000 consecutively: observe without shorting, waiting for new signals.
Investment survival skills
The market is not lacking in opportunities, but lacking in calmness. Those who can avoid following the trend at emotional peaks are the ones who can seize the entire wave.
Don't be afraid of missing out; the fear is being washed out. Once the trend is confirmed, every bullish candle that follows is a reward for those who are patient.
Old Zhu's summary
Old Zhu sees it clearly—this wave of ETH is not a small rebound; it is the prelude to the main upward wave.
The main force has already set up the game; the CPI has ignited the fuse, and funds are stirring.
4,000 is just the starting point, 4,200 is just the first stop, the real big show is still ahead.
In the next three days, ETH will tell all the hesitant people through its movements:
“You either get on the bus or watch me take off.”
The market is not lacking in rise and fall, but in clarity. Click to follow or join the circle to layout together, see you at the next explosive point!
