Double game during the silent period: The Fed and the market wait together
The US economy is currently in a data vacuum, with official statistics delayed by the government shutdown, leaving both the market and the Federal Reserve on the sidelines. Beneath the surface of calm, undercurrents surge, as both sides await guidance from key data to break the current policy and trade impasse.
1. Policy Flying Blind: The Fed Stuck in a Data-Dependent Dilemma
The Federal Reserve faces its most challenging decision-making window of the year. Due to the lack of core employment data, its policy decisions have to rely on fragmented information such as private sector data and regional reports, significantly reducing the reliability of its overall assessment.
Current signs indicate that the resilience of the job market is weakening—job growth is slowing, and the proportion of part-time jobs is rising, but there is a lack of official confirmation, and everything remains in the realm of speculation. More concerning is that there are signs of loosening on the consumption side: retail and dining expenditures continue to decline, and the savings rate of low-income groups has fallen below a safe line, with the core drivers of the economy slowing down.
At the same time, confidence in manufacturing and services is declining in sync, with the order expectations of small and medium-sized enterprises approaching the boom-bust line, and the pressure of demand contraction is spreading from localized areas to the overall market. The Federal Reserve is caught in a dilemma: tightening policies could accelerate the recession, while loosening policies may lead to repeated inflation, making every adjustment feel like walking on thin ice.
2. Market Watch: The crypto circle is caught in emotional tug-of-war.
The confusion in the market is particularly evident in the cryptocurrency market. Major cryptocurrencies frequently 'spike and retreat', with long upper shadows appearing often, indicating insufficient bullish strength and fragile market sentiment.
From a technical indicator perspective, directional signals are still lacking: the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, KDJ briefly golden crossed before death crossing again, and MACD is still operating below the zero line, with green bars contracting but not forming a clear turning point. The overall market is in a 'no trend' state.
The continuous shrinkage of trading volume further confirms the cautious attitude of both bulls and bears. In the context of data vacuum and policy uncertainty, investors are reluctant to enter the market easily. Moreover, the recent imposition of tariffs by the U.S. in steel, batteries, and other areas has intensified concerns over global trade friction, further suppressing risk appetite.
The current cryptocurrency market has fallen into a typical 'wait-and-see game'. Whether bullish or bearish, all eyes are fixed on the upcoming economic data, hoping it can point the market in the next direction.$BTC
