You always shout that the bull market has left, but why do I not even know that the bull has not come? If the bull has not come, how can we talk about it leaving?

Talking about the bull market leaving is because of the cyclical time node, because it has once again broken through its ATH and has been oscillating at a high level. If we shout that the bull market has left just because of this, it would be too arbitrary.

If we extend the timeline, then I believe the bull market has actually started since October 2023. At that time, it was the main upward wave, with BTC rising from 25,000 all the way to 110,000, an increase of over four times. However, in the past year, BTC seems to have been consolidating at a high level and has not shown a main upward wave trend. If you say the bull market has left, then perhaps it left a year ago. From this perspective, it's unreasonable to say that the key positions of the bull and bear cycles do not have a main upward wave, which suggests that this cycle theory seems to have failed.

Since that's the case, how can we talk about the bull having left? Perhaps, this round of the bull and bear cycle has already failed. This cycle is characterized by a slow and steady rise in the long bull market, and we can no longer simply apply cyclical theory. Adding in interest rate cuts, halting tapering, tariff agreements, and easing geopolitical conflicts, there may be more to look forward to in the future.

I believe that after BTC goes through ETF, its subsequent trend should be more in line with gold. Here, let’s review the overall trend of gold after its ETF was introduced.

After the introduction of the gold ETF in 2005, gold prices showed a volatile upward trend that year, and in the following years, there was a significant rise.

The specific trend is as follows: In 2005: On February 10, the international gold price was $411.50 per ounce, then it climbed all the way up, reaching $447.30 per ounce on March 11, an increase of 8.70%. In the second half of the year, gold prices fluctuated, rebounding from $414.00 per ounce on June 2 to $443.60 per ounce on June 24. On October 12, the international gold price reached a highest point in 17 years at $480.25 per ounce, dropping to a seven-week low of $455.00 per ounce on November 4, and then rising again to $486.80 per ounce on November 17, setting a new high. On November 29, the international gold price broke through the $500.00 per ounce barrier, rising to $541.00 per ounce on December 12.

From 2006 to 2011: During the period from 2006 to 2011, gold prices generally showed a significant upward trend. In 2008, affected by the global financial crisis, the gold ETF holdings surged by 300%, and gold prices also soared accordingly. By 2011, gold prices reached around $1920 per ounce, showing a significant increase compared to 2005.