In addition to short-term long and short speculation, we also need to pay attention to changes in trends. Yesterday, #BTC reached a maximum rebound of $110,608 but failed to break through $112,200, which means it did not exceed the average cost line of holders over the past 6 months (see Figure 1).

If BTC encounters resistance near the green line and continues to fail to break through, it may accelerate the red line crossing below the green line. This provides us with a dynamic reference to assess whether the possibility of 'trend ending' is increasing. From the current signs, this probability is gradually increasing (see Figure 2).

At the same time, the investor confidence index has fallen back to near the zero axis. At the current rate, this indicator may drop below water this week or next week. Once this happens, the transition of BTC from a strong to a weak trend is likely to occur.

It is important to remind: a weakening trend ≠ a bear market cycle, please do not confuse the two. The trend may be under pressure in the short term, but that does not mean the overall market cycle has entered a bear market. #加密市场回调