Despite losing nearly 23% during the recent tariff-driven market crash, Pi Coin (PI) demonstrated strong resilience by holding the $0.15 support level. Technical analysis and on-chain signals suggest that selling pressure is cooling off and buyers, particularly larger holders, are quietly returning, setting up the token for a potential 18% to 44% rebound.

1. Market Resilience and Technical Setup

The token's price action shows a significant shift in momentum, suggesting the selling has largely been absorbed:

  • Project Status: While the article focuses on market performance, the token's ability to hold above $0.15 during a broad market collapse shows stronger-than-expected buyer conviction.

  • Bullish RSI Divergence: The 12-hour chart shows a bullish divergence between September 23 and October 10 (price made a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher low). This confirms that the downward momentum is losing force and a rebound is becoming more likely.

2. On-Chain Metrics: The Return of Buyer Strength

The analysis uses two volume-based metrics to confirm that the decline is losing steam:

  • Shrinking Sell Volume (Wyckoff Bars): The volume spread pattern shows the dominant red selling bars have turned yellow and are shrinking. This indicates that sellers remain active but are operating with less intensity, and buying power is gradually stepping in—a pattern that preceded a 40% rally in August.

  • Chaikin Money Flow (CMF): The CMF, which tracks the flow of large-scale/institutional money, has bounced back and remains strong despite a brief dip below zero. This suggests that big traders are quietly accumulating Pi Coin at these lower levels, adding to the conviction that the sell-off is cooling.

3. Price Forecast and Targets

Based on the technical rebound setup, a breakout is imminent if a key resistance is flipped:

  • Current Price: PI is trading near the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $0.201.

  • Breakout Confirmation: A 12-hour candle close above $0.205 is necessary to confirm a genuine breakout attempt.

  • Upside Targets: If the breakout is confirmed, Pi Coin could target the next resistance levels:

    • $0.238 (18% upside)

    • $0.264 (31% upside)

    • $0.290 (44% upside)

  • Invalidation Point: This bullish rebound scenario would be invalidated if the price drops below $0.184, which would likely push it back toward the key $0.153 support.

Conclusion

Pi Coin's ability to maintain a key support level, combined with a confirmed bullish divergence and signs of quiet accumulation from larger holders, positions it for a potential short-term comeback. The confluence of shrinking sell volume and favorable money flow suggests that a breakout above $0.205 could unlock a significant upward move, making it one of the tokens that may profit from the broader market's reset.

Disclaimer

This content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading involves high risks, and you should always conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.