The mainnet has been live for almost a month, and it's time to take a look at Boundless's actual performance. Let's look at the data, not the promotions.
First, let's look at the number of provers. From on-chain data, there are about 3,000 active provers, which is an increase from the 2,500 on the testnet, but the growth isn't substantial. What does this indicate? Either the incentives are not attractive enough, or the entry barrier is still a bit high.
The generation of proofs has indeed increased rapidly. The average daily proof count has grown from a few thousand initially to now over 50,000. Although the absolute number isn't huge, the growth curve looks healthy. At this rate, it could reach an average of 200,000 daily by the end of the year.
Interestingly, the distribution of proof types is as follows: 60% are simple computational verifications, 30% are state proofs, and 10% are complex contract executions. This indicates that most users are still experimenting, and true killer applications have not yet emerged.
The fee market is also gradually taking shape. The average fee for each proof is between $0.5 and $2, depending on complexity. This price is much cheaper than building your own infrastructure, but it is still relatively high for small transactions.
The degree of decentralization of the network is generally average. The top 10 provers account for 40% of the proof generation volume. This is not too centralized, but it cannot be said to be sufficiently decentralized. More small and medium provers need to join to improve this situation.
The on-chain data of ZKC is also worth noting. Currently, the staking rate is about 35%, and the daily transfer volume is 2 million ZKC. Transactions are mainly concentrated on a few large exchanges, and the real usage on-chain is still not active enough.
Compared to competitors, Succinct's daily proof volume is about twice that of Boundless, but their network is more centralized, with only a few dozen nodes. These are two different choices of routes.
In terms of user growth, the number of independent addresses has increased from 5,000 to 15,000, a threefold increase looks good. However, it should be noted that many may be addresses created by opportunists. The real number of users may only be a few thousand.
Progress with partners is relatively slow. Although it is claimed there are more than 20, only a few are public, and most are still in the integration phase. This is a warning signal. If partnerships cannot be expanded quickly, it will be difficult to achieve network effects.
The technical iteration has been quite fast. Two version updates were released this month, mainly focusing on performance optimization and bug fixes. The team's execution ability is still commendable.
Community activity is average. Discord has over 8,000 members, but the average daily message volume is only a few hundred. Twitter has 30,000 followers, but the interaction rate is not high. Community building needs to be strengthened.
The financial situation should be okay. The last round of financing was $40 million, and at the current burn rate, it can last at least two years. However, if the market is not good, further financing may be needed.
Overall, Boundless has had a relatively smooth start, with no major issues, but also no surprises. The key will be whether there can be breakthrough progress in the next few months. If the growth rate remains the same by the end of the year, expectations may need to be adjusted.
My judgment is that Boundless is currently in a climbing phase. The technology is ready, but market education and ecosystem building still require time. Give them 6-12 months, and if there is still no improvement, then a reassessment will be necessary.