Looking back at history, Bitcoin has shown a very curious relationship with US government shutdowns. Each time a shutdown loomed, $BTC started to pump before the actual event, building hype and momentum as traders priced in chaos. But once the shutdown actually hit, the opposite effect followed: a sharp, unexpected drop. That short squeezeâlong squeeze combo has been a recurring pattern.
Right now, I think we could be setting up for the same play. Bitcoin has already pushed higher on the anticipation that Washington wonât get its act together. If the government does indeed âclose doorsâ in the coming weeks, we may see that quick shakeout move â a sudden flush to run stops, clear late longs, and inject fear right before the next big leg.
But donât mistake short-term volatility for weakness. Historically, these shakeouts are bullish setups. They reset funding, remove leverage, and create the kind of clean slate that allows Bitcoin to grind back upward. My short-term vision is simple: one more fakeout drop, then the climb resumes.
The real prize lies beyond. Q4 has consistently been a powerhouse for Bitcoin, especially in macro conditions like these â liquidity injections, political gridlock, and traders chasing performance. Thatâs why my long-term view hasnât changed: a new all-time high before year-end is still on the table.
This isnât the time to panic over a temporary flush. Itâs the time to prepare, stay liquid, and treat shakeouts as opportunities. The shutdown âscriptâ may play out again, but the ending is clear: Bitcoin tends to write higher highs after the noise.
Q4 â ATH remains the big picture. đ