U.S. faces Oct 1 shutdown: a data gap ahead of the late-October Fed meeting
📌 The budget deadline hits 12:00 a.m. ET on October 1 while negotiations remain stalled, lifting the probability of a shutdown; discussion of a short continuing resolution remains tentative.
🔎 A potential “data blackout” looms as the BLS may suspend operations, delaying the September jobs report and disrupting the mid-October CPI timeline; at the same time, the BEA could push back releases such as the Q3 GDP estimate.
⏱️ With the FOMC meeting on October 28–29, a thinner flow of official data would force the Fed to lean more on private indicators and market signals when assessing inflation and labor-market trends.
⚠️ Markets often respond with short-term volatility when release schedules are disrupted, with the dollar and yields sensitive to shifting policy expectations, while gold and other perceived defensives tend to draw interest during uncertainty.
💡 The direct growth impact is usually limited if any shutdown is brief, yet spillovers can build through confidence effects, publication delays, and the rate-path narrative—especially for long-duration Treasuries and risk assets.
🧭 Focus now is on any stopgap funding decision, the status of BLS/BEA calendars, and guidance from Fed officials in the run-up to late October.
