The famous 4-year Bitcoin cycle is dead.
We’ve officially entered a 5-year cycle.
Most don’t realize what this means yet…
But the data is clear: $BTC peak is now projected for Q2 2026.
Here’s why the timeline shifted and what comes next
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The old formula “halving → peak a year later” no longer works.
Bitcoin has synced with the global liquidity cycle, which runs on a 5-year rhythm.
Halving still matters, but it’s no longer the main driver.
Macro is now in control.
Previously, the market was ruled by FOMO and supply shocks.
Today, it moves with:
• US debt and rate policies
• Dollar strength/weakness
• Global liquidity flows
This slower, macro-driven structure stretches the cycle.
Why exactly 5 years?
Because the US Treasury extended average debt maturities to 5 years.
Liquidity now circulates longer before resetting.
Bitcoin’s behavior has aligned with these larger credit cycles.
The clearest signal is the ISM Manufacturing Index.
• ISM expansion → Bitcoin growth
• ISM contraction → Bitcoin weakness
Local pullbacks don’t break this correlation.
Tracking ISM tells you where $BTC is headed.
ISM is projected to peak spring 2026.
Liquidity usually peaks slightly earlier, giving Bitcoin a strong push.
This perfectly aligns with a Q2 2026 $BTC top.
M2 global money supply is recovering.
Historically, Bitcoin is the first asset to react to these liquidity waves.
Add a falling dollar into the mix, and the case strengthens even more:
Weak DXY = capital rushing into risk assets like Bitcoin.
Institutions and ETFs have extended the timeline even further.
Retail moves in bursts, but ETFs buy slowly and steadily.
This gradual demand keeps the post-halving growth phase alive longer than in past cycles.
One thing is clear this bull run is far from over
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