Ansem just released his latest forecast, with the core view: a 60% chance of dropping to 90,000 dollars.
He provided several scenarios: the blue line is most likely (60%) to drop to 90,000 and then rebound; the red line (20%) is worse, dropping to 75,000; the green line (15%) is expected to hold at 105,000 and reach a new high; the worst-case scenario (5%) is a global recession, dropping to 50,000.
His suggestion is very straightforward: "If it falls below 100,000 this year and early next year, buy as much as you can with whatever money you have, and sell in 2028."
The key point is that he believes the four-year cycle is dead. This bear market will be longer and deeper than everyone thinks, and the real rise will have to wait until the second quarter of 2026. This is completely opposite to Bob Loukas's view that it will "erupt immediately."
Ansem's logic is that the market cycle is "elongating". It's no longer as simple as halving leads to a rise; the macro environment and institutional adoption are both affecting the rhythm. What he mentioned about Q2 2026 might align with the timeline of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts deepening and more ETFs being launched
