Leave out dated old cycle of crypto. read this article and learn something new.
Bitcoin & Crypto Cycles:
Beyond the 4-Year Myth
Everyone loves the idea of Bitcoin running on a “4-year cycle.” It’s neat, predictable, and easy to sell.
The problem? It’s not actually true.
We’ve only had two prior cycles that loosely fit this 4-year framework. And both had very little to do with halving dates or some mystical clock.
They were fuelled almost entirely by global liquidity – central banks turning on the money printer.
2016–2017: Central banks injected roughly $6T into the system through QE. Crypto rode that wave.
2020–2021: Another $13T was printed globally. Again, Bitcoin and alts ripped higher.
Each cycle ended almost instantly when central banks pivoted from easing (adding liquidity) to tightening (removing liquidity and hiking rates).
That’s the real driver. Not the halving. Not the “4-year cycle.” Liquidity.
What About 2023–2025?
We haven’t had a true crypto cycle in this period because we’ve been in the opposite environment:
High interest rates
Quantitative Tightening (QT): $7T removed from circulation between Jan 2022 and Jan 2025
Despite that headwind, Bitcoin has still held strong – not because of a cycle, but because of a new structural shift: ETFs and institutional adoption.
Institutions Don’t Trade in Cycles
Unlike retail, institutions don’t wait for “halvings.” They move in phases:
Accumulation
Expansion
Distribution
Then rinse and repeat.
That’s the framework we should be thinking about, not some outdated 4-year model.
Looking Ahead
If central banks pivot in 2026 with rate cuts and another wave of QE, then maybe – maybe – we’ll see a broad crypto cycle (alts included) take off. Until then, Bitcoin is playing by institutional rules, not retail fantasies.
Liquidity drives markets.
Institutions shape the phases.
The “4-year cycle” is a story of the past.
