SOL 203 USD 'Positioning' Bull-Bear Divide: Is it a False Dip or the Night Before a True Breakthrough?
Snapshot
The price just falls at the lower edge of the two-week value area, RSI is not oversold, and the contract OI has been declining, with both bulls and bears waiting for a direction to expand.
Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchor: POC 214.8 (two-week highest transaction density), current price is 5.8% below this point, in the 'discount area'.
• Buffer HVN: 202.9 and 215.2, the former forms an intraday short-term ceiling, the latter is a bear protection zone.
• Vacuum LVN: 251.7-253.0, low volume of 490,000 contracts, price can accelerate once it enters.
Momentum Verification
In the past two weeks, POC has been Up/Down 43:57, slightly bearish; however, the 1h level RSI 59.7 and Bollinger Bands 66% are synchronously rising, showing that the bear's dominant strength is diminishing, with short-term conditions for a rebound test at 215.
Auxiliary Indicators
MA200 1h 217.3, almost overlapping with the upper HVN 215, forming a 'double pressure zone'; 1h-ATR 1.37, volatility narrowing, breakthrough needs volume ≥1.5×ATR to confirm.
Order Book Anomalies
Buy one hangs at 5.33 million contracts vs sell one at 5.06 million contracts, slightly biased towards bulls on the surface; however, the 250 USD distant order 20,800 contracts is the largest sell order in the market, if triggered will quickly fill the LVN.
Cycle Judgment
Retracing 23% from the 266 high point, in the 'large-scale oscillation lower edge'; OI has decreased 10% in the past 7 days, funding rate slightly positive, both bulls and bears reduce positions, a typical volume contraction before a trend change.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Buy near 202.0, stop loss 200.3 (lower HVN-0.5ATR), target 215 (POC area), RR≈2.3.
Conservative: Wait for a 4h close above 205.3 and then buy on a pullback, stop loss 202.5, target 217/238, RR≈2.1.
Cautious: If it falls below 200.0 and loses 194.4 (VAL), reverse to short, stop loss 197.0, target 188 (previous low), RR≈1.9.
LP Market Making
It is recommended to place both-sided orders in the small ranges of 202-205 and 213-216, with a distance of 0.4-0.5 ATR, order volume ≤ 15% of position, beware of 8h level OI anomalies and funding rate reversals.
Risk Triggers
1) Spot 1h volume breaks below 194 and contract OI increases → area invalidation;
2) Macro sudden negative news causes the 250 distant orders to be instantly consumed → slippage >1% should pause market making;
3) Funding rate turns negative and continues to expand, bears return, low long strategy needs to reduce positions.
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