🚨 Powell’s Cautious Cut – No Risk-Free Path Ahead 🚨
The Fed made its first 25 bps rate cut of 2025, but Powell’s 12:35 PM ET speech wasn’t a “green light” for markets. Instead, he painted a picture of a fragile economy and data-driven caution.
📝 Key Quotes & Takeaways:
• ✅ “The labor market has shown signs of slowing” → payroll growth cooling, unemployment ~4.3%
• ⚠️ Inflation still “uncertain” and sticky, especially in services
• 📊 Powell: “Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation.”
• 🔥 “There is no risk-free path” → cut too fast = inflation, too slow = job losses
• 🎯 Current stance = “modestly restrictive,” leaving room to react to new data
💡 Lesson for Crypto Investors:
• A cautious Fed = no flood of easy money, but also a signal that liquidity may increase if the economy weakens further.
• BTC & ETH will likely mirror macro moves — rising on dovish expectations, dipping on sticky inflation fears.
• Altcoins thrive in liquidity waves, but Powell just reminded us: every new data point matters.
👉 Strategy: Don’t trade on hopium. Track inflation, jobs, and GDP releases — these will decide if Powell opens the door wider for easing in Q4.
