Tonight, Federal Reserve Chairman #鲍威尔 will speak on the economic outlook, and the market is holding its breath. In the past day, the number of liquidations across the network reached 350,000+, with a liquidation amount of $1.44 billion, and a brutal clash between longs and shorts. But if you are a veteran in crypto, this scene is nothing new. The core logic of the market has always remained unchanged: volatility is the norm, and the main funds are key. #加密市场回调
Last night, the seven sisters of the US stock market reached a new high, almost unaffected by external noise, indicating that funds are indifferent to some messages. The real focus is still on Powell's tone tonight - Little Cloud expects 'hawkish first, dovish later', first scaring the market, then soothing emotions. 🎭
The fate of global M2 and ETH.
Speaking of the big trend, just looking at the Federal Reserve is not enough. The global M2 money supply is the hidden super barometer. Analysts have found that the #M2 trend is highly correlated with #BTC and #ETH prices.
Bitcoin has surged to $124,400 with the 'tailwind' of M2, while Ethereum seems to have just started. Crypto analyst Ted Pillows pointed out in a chart that ETH's current position is brewing a new round of explosion.
In the short term, ETH may first drop below $4,000, but this is not a bad thing; rather, it releases liquidity—preparing for a subsequent rise. Once it stabilizes at the $4,070 support, ETH is expected to rebound strongly, targeting $5,766 first. 🔥
A bolder prediction is that by 2026, Ethereum may hit $18,000–$20,000. Even with conservative estimates, there is a chance to break $10,000 in the coming years, and this year some analysts believe ETH can reach that milestone first. 🚀
Altcoins vs. Mainstream: The knockout stage has already begun.
But be aware, the market will not be friendly to everyone. As the number of altcoins explodes, capital is gradually concentrating on mainstream and new narrative coins: BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB remain the core.
BNB: Needs to stay above 998 for the rebound to be considered successful, with resistance levels at 1013, 1037, 1053.
SOL: The key point is at 221, whether it can stabilize determines the strength of the rebound. Support is at 216, 212, 206.
Many players who stubbornly hold on to the 'altcoin season' may be prioritized for elimination by the market. History has proven that those who can traverse cycles are always the leaders.
Derivative DEX: Three strong competitors.
Of course, besides coin price, narrative is equally important. In the second half of 2025, the derivative DEX track will still be hot, led by Hyperliquid. But new projects each have their unique strengths:
$ASTER: Backed by major exchanges, focusing on traffic strategy, using 1000x leverage to attract attention, may shift to building its own blockchain in the future.
$AVNT: Narrative-focused, concentrating on RWA (real-world assets on-chain), using zero-fee contracts, charging only when profitable.
$DRIFT: Technical style, deeply engaged in the Solana ecosystem, attracting institutional attention with its trident liquidity system.
Three paths are clear: traffic strategy, narrative strategy, technical strategy. Who can shake Hyperliquid's position still depends on capital and time.
Summary:
Tonight, Powell's speech may just be a moment of short-term fright. The bigger story is the expansion of global M2 and Ethereum's potential five-figure target. 📈
Short-term players should keep an eye on the $4,000 defense; long-term holders may be standing at the door of the next historic market wave. Whether you are looking at BNB's support level or focusing on the new narrative of DEX, remember an old saying: The market always rewards those who are patient and have the right direction. 😉
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