In the overall volatile correction of the cryptocurrency market, SOL (Solana) 4-hour K-line has shown a contradictory trend of 'short-term local rebound + overall bearish continuation' — Comparing key time points, it can be seen that the SOL price has experienced a 'significant rise' compared to the local low point of 04:00 on September 22, 2025, but still has a notable pullback compared to the volatile high point of 00:00 on September 21; the technical aspect presents a weak characteristic of 'small bearish closing + low trading volume', compounded by contradictory indicators such as MACD death cross, KDJ oversold, and RSI below 30, putting SOL in a game of 'oversold or triggering a rebound, but the bearish dominance remains unchanged' in the short term. BOSS Wallet, combined with the latest data, indicates a buying range of 221.49-225 USD and a resistance level of 248 USD, further clarifying: whether the 225 USD support holds will determine if SOL will welcome an oversold repair rebound or continue to drop to the low point of 221.49 USD.
I. Core features of 4-hour K-line: Rebound meets resistance + quiet volume, bearish dominance pattern remains unchanged.
From the perspective of volume-price and pattern details of SOL 4-hour K-line, although there has been a local rebound in recent trends, the core pattern of "bearish dominance" has not fundamentally changed, three key features need to be focused on:
1. Price trend: Local rebounds cannot hide the overall weakness, small bearish bar closing shows bearish suppression.
The price fluctuation of SOL 4-hour K-line presents a characteristic of "first bouncing and then suppressing", and the rebound strength continues to weaken, overall still in a downtrend:
Compared to the low point of September 22 at 04:00: A "local rebound" occurred, rebounding from 221.49 dollars (recent lowest point) to the range of 228-230 dollars, with a rebound amplitude of about 3%, but during the rebound process did not form "consecutive bullish lines", instead quickly fell back after approaching 230 dollars, ultimately closing with a "small bearish bar", with the closing price lower than the opening price, reflecting "after the rebound meets resistance, bears regain control of the rhythm";
Compared to the high point of September 21 at 00:00: Significantly retreated, from around 245 dollars at that time to the current 225-228 dollar range, a drop of over 8%, and during this period, no "effective rebound recovering key levels" occurred, previous support levels of 240 dollars, 235 dollars were lost one after another, only around 225 dollars (recent support level) temporarily got support, the overall downtrend remains unchanged;
Pattern details: The last 4-hour K-line ends with a "small bearish bar", although the body length is short (a drop of about 1.2%), but accompanied by the characteristic of "long upper shadow", indicating that the price attempted to rise (reached 229 dollars), but fell back after being suppressed by bears, further confirming that "the selling pressure above is still heavy".
2. Volume change: Trading volume synchronously shrinks, market quietness exacerbates volatility risk.
Corresponding to the price "meeting resistance on rebound" is that the SOL 4-hour cycle volume shows a trend of "continuous shrinkage", and market trading activity has dropped to a recent low:
Abnormal volume-price linkage: Although the price has rebounded compared to the low point of September 22 at 04:00, during the rebound, trading volume did not synchronously increase, but instead dropped from 800 million dollars / 4 hours at that time to the current 520 million dollars / 4 hours, a decline of 35%; more critically, when the price fell back, the trading volume further decreased to 480 million dollars / 4 hours, forming a "synchronized decline in price and trading volume" cold state;
The hidden danger of quiet volume: Low trading volume means "low market consensus" - on the one hand, bulls are reluctant to enter easily, fearing "lack of follow-up buying support"; on the other hand, bears have not yet sold off on a large scale, causing prices to fall into "narrow fluctuations". But this quiet state is often unstable, once there is a "large order smashing" or "good news stimulation", it is very easy to trigger "sudden increase in volume + sharp price fluctuations", increasing operational difficulties.
II. Technical indicator contradiction: Oversold signals coexist with continued bearishness, risks of rebound and decline are intertwined.
The technical indicators of SOL 4-hour cycle present a "clear contradiction" - KDJ and RSI issue "oversold rebound signals", but MACD continues to maintain "bearish dominance", this contradictory state makes the short-term trend full of uncertainty:
1. MACD: Death cross confirmation + green bars lengthening, bearish strength is still strengthening.
The MACD indicator is the current "bearish dominance" core confirmation, the signal is clear and continuously strengthening:
Death cross pattern confirmation: The MACD fast line (DIF) crosses the signal line (DEA) from above to form a "death cross", and after the death cross, the two lines continue to diverge downward, with the current DIF having dropped to -6.2 and DEA to -4.8, the distance between the two lines further widening, reflecting that "bearish momentum is still being released".
Green bars continue to lengthen: MACD histogram (green bars) remains negative and length gradually increases, expanding from the previous -2.1 to the current -5.7, an increase of over 170%, indicating that "bearish forces are still strengthening", and have not yet shown signs of "momentum weakening" or "bottom divergence" rebound, need to remain vigilant against further bearish pressure in the short term.
2. KDJ and RSI: Oversold signals appear, rebound expectations rise but need to be cautious.
Unlike the bearish signal of MACD, KDJ and RSI indicators have entered the "oversold zone", releasing signals of "short-term or trigger repair rebounds":
KDJ: No golden cross or death cross, but the value has dropped to 17, entering the "oversold zone" (usually KDJ value below 20 is considered oversold). From historical trends, when the KDJ value of SOL 4-hour K-line drops below 17, there is nearly an 80% probability of a "5%-8% oversold repair rebound", but it should be noted: oversold does not mean "the decline has stopped", if bearish strength continues, KDJ may "hover for a long time in the oversold zone", or even drop further below 10;
RSI: Value below 30, also enters the oversold zone. RSI quickly dropped from a previous 45 to the current 28, reflecting a "short-term decline too fast, the market has a repair demand", but the "rebound strength" after RSI is oversold varies greatly - if accompanied by increased volume, the rebound may reach 8%-10%; if the volume remains quiet, the rebound may only be 3%-5%, and it is easy to fall back again after the rebound.
3. Response to indicator contradictions: Use "support and resistance" as an anchor, rather than a single indicator.
Faced with the contradictions of technical indicators, need to jump out of the "single indicator judgment", with the "support and resistance levels" as the core anchor point:
If the price holds at the 225 dollar support level (BOSS Wallet provided support level + buying point two), and KDJ, RSI oversold signals continue, while "volume moderately expands", then the short-term may trigger a rebound, targeting 235-240 dollars;
If the price breaks below the 225 dollar support, and the MACD green bars further lengthen, KDJ and RSI oversold signals may "fail", and the price will drop to 221.49 dollars (recent lowest point + buying point one), and may even break below this low point, starting a new round of adjustment.
III. BOSS Wallet practical strategy: Relying on support and resistance layout, strictly controlling positions to respond to conflicting market conditions.
In response to the current complex situation of "indicator contradictions + quiet volume" for SOL, the buying points, stop loss points, and support resistance levels provided by BOSS Wallet need to be flexibly adjusted based on "risk preference", the core principle is "strictly control positions, do not bet on direction, rely on key levels to operate":
1. Buying strategy: Oversold rebound needs to wait for signals, refuse to blindly bottom.
The two buying points provided by BOSS Wallet (221.49 dollars, 225 dollars) are both close to support levels, but need to meet "stabilization signals" before entering, to avoid "bottoming in the middle of oversold":
Buying point two (225 dollars): The preferred entry point for rebound. Need to wait for "the price to close above 2 or more 4-hour bullish lines near 225 dollars", and accompanied by "trading volume moderately increasing to over 600 million dollars", after confirming the support is effective, enter with a light position, not exceeding 2% of total assets, stop loss set at 220.38 dollars (BOSS Wallet long stop loss point), target aimed at 235 dollars (first rebound resistance level);
Buying point one (221.49 dollars): The bottoming point in extreme situations. Only when the price drops to this position (recent lowest point) and appears "long lower shadow K-line" (such as hammer line, bullish engulfing), and simultaneously MACD green bars begin to shorten, can a small position be tried, with a position not exceeding 1% of total assets, stop loss set below 220 dollars (breaking historical low), target aimed at 228-230 dollars.
2. Selling and shorting strategy: Take profit on rebound meeting resistance first, shorting needs to wait for clear breaking.
Selling strategy (for rebound): If the price rebounds to the selling point two given by BOSS Wallet (248 dollars) or selling point one (248.36 dollars), need to combine "volume and pattern" judgment - if the price rebounds to 248 dollars when "trading volume sharply decreases + appearing shooting star / evening star and other bearish K-lines", then immediately take profit, to avoid "rebound failing"; if it does not reach the target but appears "MACD red bars shortening", also need to reduce 50% of the position in advance to lock in some profits;
Shorting strategy: Currently, it is not recommended to blindly short, need to wait for "clear breaking signal" - that is, the price breaks below 220.38 dollars (BOSS Wallet long stop loss point), and accompanied by "trading volume increasing to over 700 million dollars", at this time, can short with a light position, not exceeding 1.5% of total assets, stop loss set at 249.6 dollars (BOSS Wallet short stop loss point), target aimed at 215-220 dollars.
3. Core taboos: Avoid two major erroneous operations.
Avoid "betting on oversold rebound": It is not recommended to "enter fully" just because KDJ and RSI are oversold, oversold may continue further, and rebound strength is limited under quiet volume, blindly bottoming can easily get trapped;
Avoid "ignoring the risk of support breaking": If the 225 dollar support is broken, immediately give up the "rebound expectation", do not easily add positions, to avoid "buying more as it falls, expanding losses".
IV. Short-term trend outlook: 225 dollar support is a life-and-death line, oversold rebound needs to be accompanied by volume.
Comprehensive analysis of SOL 4-hour K-line's volume-price, technical indicators, and BOSS Wallet strategy, the core focus of short-term trends is concentrated on the "225 dollar support level":
Optimistic scenario (rebound): If the 225 dollar support holds, and volume moderately increases to 600-700 million dollars / 4 hours, KDJ and RSI oversold repair rebound may start, the first target aims at 235 dollars (corresponding to the lower edge of the previous oscillation platform), if it breaks through 235 dollars and the volume continues, can look to 248 dollars (BOSS Wallet selling point);
Pessimistic scenario (downtrend): If the 225 dollar support is broken, and MACD green bars further lengthen, the price will drop to 221.49 dollars, if this low point is also lost, the next support will point to 210-215 dollars (corresponding to MA120 moving average), the adjustment may expand to 10%-12%.
The current short-term trend of SOL is essentially a game between "oversold repair demand" and "continued bearish strength", and the changes in volume and the 225 dollar support level will become the key to breaking the stalemate. Investors need to maintain rationality, not be influenced by a single indicator or short-term fluctuations, and respond with "small positions, strict stop losses", to avoid taking excessive risks in conflicting market conditions.
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