The cryptocurrency market is the realm of unpredictability... or not? 🤷♂️
On one side, Arthur Hayes predicts that the "infinite rise" of Bitcoin will be restarted as soon as the US Treasury reaches its target of US$ 850 billion in the General Account (TGA). 🏦 In theory, this "liquidity drain" would end, and money would start circulating again in risk asset markets.
On the other hand, analysts like André Dragosch throw a bucket of cold water on the party, calling the theory "useless nonsense". 💦 He argues that the correlation between the TGA and Bitcoin is, at best, weak.
And what do we actually have? The Federal Reserve has already started cutting interest rates. The first cut of 25 basis points has already happened, and the market... fell. 🤯 Apparently, the news was already priced in. However, 91.9% of traders are already expecting a new cut of up to 50 basis points at the next meeting in October. 🎯
The question that remains is: what moves the market now? Would it be the liquidity of the TGA, the Fed's monetary policy, or simply the famous "news selling"? 🤔 While the big names debate macro trends, the reality is that caution is the best strategy. The infinite rise may even exist, but the path to it seems to be a roller coaster of expectations and reality. 🎢
