In the cryptocurrency market, the movements of "Smart Money" (referring to addresses of institutions or seasoned investors that are typically precise in market trend judgments and possess forward-looking operations) have always been an important barometer for ordinary investors. Recently, the latest data released by the blockchain data monitoring platform Lookonchain shows that two Smart Money addresses that have held PUMP tokens for a long time initiated sell-offs in just 11 hours to lock in high returns within a two-month investment cycle. This operation not only allowed the relevant addresses to achieve over 130% return rate but also cast a layer of uncertainty over the short-term market trend of PUMP.
One, Details of Smart Money's sell-off: Precisely timed, high returns locked in.
According to Lookonchain's on-chain tracking data, this sell-off displays characteristics of 'batch execution and efficient profit-taking'; the two addresses' operation time intervals are less than 5 hours, and both chose to complete transactions in a relatively stable price range of PUMP.
1. Address starting with 6AkVuG: completed a large sell-off 6 hours ago, realizing a profit of 1.96 million USD in a single transaction.
The address completed a large sell-off of PUMP tokens through a decentralized exchange 6 hours ago, selling a total of 466.74 million PUMP, with a trading amount of approximately 3.27 million USD based on the market price at that time. Further tracing the holding history of this address reveals that its buying behavior concentrated two months ago — at that time, the price of PUMP was at a temporary low, and the address built positions through multiple small purchases, accumulating a buying cost of about 1.31 million USD. Based on this calculation, the address achieved a net profit of 1.96 million USD in this sell-off, with a return on investment as high as 149%, nearly doubling its returns in just two months.
From the perspective of the trading timing, this address chose to execute the sell-off after a recent slight rebound in PUMP: previously, due to an overall market recovery, PUMP's price had risen about 30% from its low two months ago, but had not yet broken through previous resistance levels. At this time, the sell-off can lock in most of the rebound profits while avoiding subsequent price corrections that would lead to profit loss, reflecting Smart Money's precise control over the 'profit-taking node.'
2. Address starting with 58teLV: sold first 11 hours ago, locking in a 133% profit.
Another sell-off occurred 11 hours ago, led by an address starting with 58teLV: this address sold 272.24 million PUMP in one go, with a trading amount of approximately 1.95 million USD. On-chain data shows that the buying time of this address is similar to the previous one, also concentrated two months ago, with a cumulative buying cost of about 790,000 USD. This sell-off achieved a net profit of 1.16 million USD, with a return on investment of 133%.
It is worth noting that the sell-off pace of this address is more 'decisive' — before the sell-off, the address held 25% of its total crypto assets in PUMP, which is a 'medium-high position allocation,' and this time opted for a full liquidation instead of a partial reduction, reflecting the address's cautious judgment on PUMP's short-term trend: on one hand, it may worry that future market liquidity tightening will put pressure on PUMP's price; on the other hand, it may plan to redirect the recovered funds to other crypto assets with higher short-term potential.
Two, Market impact of Smart Money's sell-off: Short-term sentiment under pressure, need to be vigilant against chain reactions.
1. Direct impact on PUMP's price: Increased short-term correction pressure under selling pressure.
Although the sell-off actions of the two addresses did not trigger a 'cliff-like drop' in PUMP's price, the market response indicates that the selling pressure has formed a clear constraint on the price: after the sell-off by the 58teLV address was completed, PUMP's price dropped from 0.0000082 USD to 0.0000078 USD within 1 hour, a decline of about 4.9%; while the subsequent sell-off by the 6AkVuG address further kept the price oscillating in a narrow range of 0.0000077-0.0000079 USD, down over 6% from the price level before the two sell-offs.
More critically, the total scale of these two sell-offs (approximately 5.22 million USD) accounts for 18% of PUMP's total trading volume in nearly 24 hours, falling into the 'large transaction' category, which temporarily disrupted the market's supply-demand balance — previously, due to low trading volume, PUMP's price was easily driven up by small funds, but this concentrated sell-off from Smart Money made it difficult for the market's buying power to absorb, leading to a state of 'volume-less correction.'
2. Indirect impact on market sentiment: Ordinary investors may follow suit to take profits, exacerbating volatility.
The trends of Smart Money have a strong 'guiding' effect on the emotions of ordinary investors. The concentrated sell-off from these two addresses has sparked discussions in the PUMP community: some early holders are beginning to worry that 'after Smart Money exits, there will be insufficient upward momentum,' and are asking on social platforms 'whether they need to follow and take profits'; while others, seeing the high returns of Smart Money, have developed a perception that 'the risk of chasing is too high,' abandoning their original purchasing plans.
This change in sentiment may trigger a 'chain reaction': if PUMP's price continues to slightly correct afterwards, it may trigger more retail investors' stop-loss or profit-taking actions, further amplifying short-term declines; conversely, if new buying power (such as other institutions entering to take over) emerges in the market, it may alleviate the selling pressure and stabilize the price. However, from the current market liquidity perspective, PUMP, as a small to mid-cap token, will find it difficult to attract large amounts of takeover funds in the short term, and the bearish sentiment will still be the key factor driving short-term trends.
Three, Underlying logic: The core idea of Smart Money operations — 'Catch the trend, don’t linger in battles.'
From this sell-off event, the core logic of Smart Money investing in PUMP can be clearly seen, which also provides a reference for ordinary investors:
1. Positioning: Layout at low levels, diversify risks.
The buying behaviors of the two addresses are both concentrated at market lows two months ago and adopted the method of 'multiple small purchases' instead of a one-time full position — this operation can avoid excessively high costs caused by 'single point purchases' while also reducing the market price impact by spreading out buying times, reflecting the 'low cost, low impact' positioning strategy.
2. Positioning: Keep a close eye on cycles, do not be greedy.
During the two months of holding, PUMP had once experienced a short-term surge (over 50% increase), but both addresses did not choose to take profits at that time; instead, they continued to hold until the relatively high level after this price correction — this indicates that Smart Money is not 'short-term speculation', but has a clear plan for holding periods, and does not pursue 'selling at the highest point', but decisively exits when the returns reach the expected target (130%-150%), avoiding profit loss due to 'greed.'
3. Exit: Executed intensively, efficiently locking in profits.
The nearly simultaneous sell-off of these two addresses may not be a coincidence — it could be based on a shared judgment of the overall market environment (such as the recent crypto market facing overall resistance, and funds in small to mid-cap tokens beginning to flow back to mainstream coins, etc.), choosing to exit within the same time frame to minimize the risk of 'a single address's sell-off triggering a price crash' and ensuring profits are safely locked in.
Four, Insights for ordinary investors: Rationally view Smart Money trends and avoid blindly following.
This Smart Money sell-off of PUMP also serves as a wake-up call for ordinary investors:
Do not blindly chase 'Smart Money' holdings: Smart Money's position cost, risk tolerance, and ordinary investors differ, and their holdings may not be suitable for retail investors — this time, both Smart Money addresses for PUMP have 'long-term idle funds + high-risk tolerance', while ordinary investors, if they follow suit to buy, may be unable to hold until the profit-taking node due to liquidity needs or insufficient risk tolerance.
Establish your own profit-taking and stop-loss system: Smart Money's profit-taking logic (such as 130%-150% return) is based on its own investment strategy; ordinary investors should formulate their own profit-taking and stop-loss rules based on their own circumstances, for example, setting the profit-taking line at 50%-80% and the stop-loss line at 10%-15%, to avoid decision confusion caused by 'following others' operations.'
Focus on the token's fundamentals, rather than a single capital trend: In addition to Smart Money's operations, one should pay attention to PUMP's fundamentals, such as project ecological progress, application landing situation, community activity, etc. — if the project itself lacks sustainable development momentum and relies solely on capital to drive up, even without Smart Money selling, the price will be difficult to maintain in the long term, and ordinary investors need to be wary of 'pure capital-driven' token speculation.
Lookonchain's monitoring data provides a transparent reference for market capital flow, but ultimately investment decisions still need to be based on one's own judgment of the market. This Smart Money sell-off of PUMP, while causing short-term impact on the market, has also made more investors realize the importance of 'taking profits' in crypto investments — in the highly volatile crypto market, 'locking in profits' is sometimes more important than 'pursuing higher returns.'
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