Coinext analysis indicates that flows in ETFs, global liquidity, and interest rate cuts in the U.S. create a favorable scenario for a new high of $BTC .
Bitcoin is about to begin a new bullish cycle. This view is supported by Coinext, which states that after weeks of instability, the signs of recovery align, and market confidence grows in the face of a global scenario marked by abundant liquidity and the expectation of an interest rate cut in the United States.
José Artur Ribeiro, CEO of Coinext, highlighted in an interview that the moment can be decisive.
He also emphasized that the S&P 500 is already heading for its seventh consecutive week of gains, accumulating five new all-time highs.
The executive noted that the capital flow to Bitcoin ETFs totals over $2.8 billion just in September, representing a growth of about 5% in market capitalization. According to him, this movement confirms the entry of large institutional investors and reinforces the view that confidence in the asset is increasing.
"Even if there is no immediate breakout after a potential interest rate cut by the FED, the flows in ETFs, global liquidity, and the consistent technical base keep Bitcoin well positioned for further advances in the coming weeks. A new rally is about to begin: breaking the resistance at $117,500 will open up space for a new high," declared Ribeiro.
This analysis is shared by other firms in the industry. A report from Bitfinex highlighted that Bitcoin ended the last week up 4.2%, breaking a three-week losing streak.
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The recovery found support in the region of $107,500 and consolidated again at the level of $112,500, opening space for additional gains in the fourth quarter.
According to the brokerage experts, on-chain data shows strong buying interest around $108,000, while the $110,000 to $116,000 zone concentrates most of the recent supply.
"To confirm a more consistent recovery, the price needs to firmly break through the $116,000 barrier," the report pointed out.
Macroeconomics creates a trigger for crypto
The external environment also reinforces this view. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August in the U.S. recorded the highest increase since January, driven by housing, food, and energy. At the same time, unemployment claims reached the highest level since 2021, showing a weaker labor market.
This set pressures the Federal Reserve to cut rates sooner, which tends to further release liquidity for risk assets like Bitcoin. Consumer confidence, in turn, fell to its lowest level since May, but spending continues to be sustained by credit and the withdrawal of savings.
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The scenario also caught the attention of publicly listed companies. Méliuz announced a groundbreaking strategy by using derivatives to monetize its Bitcoin reserves.
"Méliuz's initiative marks a watershed moment for the corporate market in Latin America," said Will Hernandez, manager of Bitfinex.
For him, the decision shows that regional companies are recognizing Bitcoin as a legitimate long-term financial planning tool.
A mature cycle, but with room for new highs
The cycle analysis also reinforces optimism. Axel Adler Jr., independent analyst, noted that 504 days have passed since the last halving.
"We can say that the market is in a mature phase of the bullish regime," he stated.
He explained that in March, at $70,000, there was an extreme peak in Value Days Destroyed (VDD). Then, more moderate distribution waves occurred near $98,000 and $117,000, suggesting a healthy redistribution movement, absorbed by institutional demand.
Adler reinforced that the classic signal of the end of a cycle should only occur when the price is approximately 11 times above the long-term investors' cost base.
"The most likely window for this to open will be between October and November 2025," he added.
