In the crypto market, every Bitcoin halving sparks speculation about the next major bull run. History shows that Bitcoin usually rallies to new highs after halving events — and interestingly, XRP often follows with its own surge.
Past Halving Cycles and XRP’s Reaction
2016 – 2017 Cycle
After the July 9, 2016 halving, Bitcoin rallied for over a year.
Exactly 527 days later, it hit a peak above $19,000 on December 18, 2017.
Just 18 days afterward, XRP exploded to its all-time high of $3.31 on January 5, 2018.
This cycle established a pattern: Bitcoin peaks first, and XRP rallies shortly after.
2020 – 2021 Cycle
Bitcoin’s third halving took place on May 11, 2020.
About 548 days later, it topped around $69,000 on November 10, 2021.
XRP, however, broke the pattern. The SEC lawsuit in late 2020 forced many exchanges to delist it, stunting its rally.
Instead of peaking alongside Bitcoin, XRP reached $1.96 in April 2021 — nearly seven months early. This was widely seen as a “lost cycle” for XRP.
Why 2025 Could Be Different for XRP
The landscape has completely shifted:
In July 2023, a U.S. court confirmed that XRP is not a security.
U.S. exchanges relisted XRP, restoring investor access.
Ripple expanded with RLUSD stablecoin and new global payment corridors.
Multiple XRP ETF filings have entered the pipeline.
These changes may finally allow XRP to reach its full potential in sync with Bitcoin’s halving cycle.
Possible Cycle Top in October 2025
Applying the 527-day formula from the 2017 cycle:
The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred on April 20, 2024.
This points to a potential Bitcoin peak around September 29, 2025.
If XRP repeats its historic 18-day lag, it could top on October 17, 2025.
Potential XRP Price Targets
1. Conservative Case: $5 – $7
2. Base Case (ETF inflows + utility adoption): $10 – $15
3. Bullish Blowoff Rally (institutional liquidity): $20+
Conclusion
Unlike the retail-driven rally of 2017, the 2025 setup looks far more mature. With regulatory clarity, Ripple’s stablecoin efforts, ETF interest, and real-world adoption, XRP may finally be positioned for a true breakout. If the historical pattern between Bitcoin and XRP repeats, the coming months could set the stage for XRP’s biggest move yet.
