The impact of recent major news events on Bitcoin (BTC) prices
Federal Reserve interest rate policy expectations and economic data releases: Economic data released in the first few weeks of September (such as the non-farm payroll report on September 5 and the CPI data on September 11) showed cooling inflation and weak employment data, which reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate cut on September 17, causing BTC to gradually rebound from a low of about $107,000 in early September to over $115,000. However, the market downturn on September 16 (BTC fell 0.5% to $115,864) was mainly attributed to investors taking a cautious wait-and-see approach ahead of the FOMC meeting, avoiding leveraged exposure. Such macro data typically triggers volatility in the short term but overall supports BTC's rebound as weak data increases the likelihood of liquidity injections.
Token Unlock Wave: September is the largest token unlock month in 2025, with a total of $4.5 billion, including unlocks from multiple projects such as Sui, Ethena, and Aptos, mainly concentrated in the middle of the month. This increases market supply pressure, potentially exacerbating volatility, and pushing BTC down from $108,000 at the beginning of September, but later easing due to other positive factors. Nonetheless, unlock events often lead to short-term selling pressure, but do not hinder BTC's overall upward trend.
Regulatory and Policy Developments: Including the 'Project Crypto' initiative allowing registered exchanges to conduct spot crypto trading, as well as the end of the MiCA transition period on September 30 and the $1.9 billion distribution to FTX bankruptcy creditors. These changes enhance regulatory clarity, potentially increase liquidity, and are seen as positive, driving institutional adoption and BTC prices back up from September lows. Additionally, reports of U.S. banks launching custody services and the SEC easing regulations further solidify BTC's position as a store of value.
Seasonal Market Patterns and Quad Witching: Historical data shows that September is usually a weak month for BTC (with an average loss of 5-7% over the past 10 years), which is reflected in early September as prices drop to $107,000. However, September 2025 may break this pattern due to strong catalysts. Furthermore, the Quad Witching on September 19 is expected to trigger significant volatility, potentially amplifying price movements.
ETF Inflows and Institutional Activity: In early September, BTC ETFs recorded an inflow of $757 million, driving prices up from lows. Public company holdings reached 1 million BTC, along with the listing of mining companies supported by Trump, enhancing market confidence and leading BTC to rise to the $116,000 range in mid-September.
Forecasting Possible Market Reactions
If the Federal Reserve announces a 25bps rate cut on September 17 and signals a dovish stance: This could inject more liquidity, triggering a short-term pump in BTC of 2-5%, targeting above $120,000, and leading the overall crypto market to rebound, entering 'Pumptember' mode, breaking the historical weakness of September. Further institutional inflows could drive the Q4 bull market to continue towards $160,000 or higher.
If the rate cut is smaller than expected or the tone is cautious: The market may see a short-term pullback, with BTC testing the $114,000 support, accompanied by increased volatility, especially around Quad Witching. This would amplify the selling pressure from token unlocks, leading to sideways consolidation until more macro data clarifies.
Long-term Impact of Regulation and Unlocks: The distribution from FTX and regulatory clarity may release more funds back into the market by the end of September, supporting BTC's status as a safe-haven asset, pushing the year-end target to $120,000-$250,000. However, if unlocks lead to oversupply, there may be dip-buy opportunities in the short term.
Overall Volatility and Altcoin Correlation: Regardless of the outcome, high volatility is expected for the remainder of September, with BTC strength potentially spilling over to altcoins, initiating an altseason. If the macro environment improves, the total market cap may rise from $4.11 trillion to new highs; otherwise, a cautious mode will be maintained until Q4.#美联储降息预期升温
