Market expectations and political pressure
• The market has priced in a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 16-17
• President Trump calls for a significant cut in rates (more than 300 basis points), claiming economic concerns
• CME's FedWatch tool shows an 89% chance of a modest 25 basis point cut, and only 11.7% for a 50 basis point cut
• There is a sharp divergence between political rhetoric and market consensus that creates uncertainty
Indications on prices and the future outlook for trading
• Bitcoin is moving near an important resistance level ($67,000-$68,500) with the potential for gains ranging from 13-30% if a rate cut goes ahead#Tramp
• Altcoins (SOL, DOGE, XRP) face a potential decline of 15-20% regardless of the Federal Reserve's decision#BNBBreaksATH
• Recent chain data shows an increase in exchange flows, indicating that investors are taking profits ahead of volatility
• Technical support levels will be crucial if Trump’s demands for a bold cut are not met (risk of a 5-8% Bitcoin correction)
Strategic considerations
• Historically, low interest rates are associated with increased liquidity in the cryptocurrency market and risk appetite
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) and bond yields remain critically important indicators for cryptocurrency traders
• Volatility in altcoins may create strategic buying opportunities if temporary sell-offs occur#PEPE
• Analysts (from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan) maintain a skeptical stance regarding the Federal Reserve's execution of a bold rate cut despite political pressures