Steady now, we need to clarify history first.


From 1984 to 2020, the Federal Reserve has implemented ten rounds of interest rate cuts, each with a different script: some benefited from the surge, while others were directly buried in the recession pit.


In simple terms, rate cuts are classified into three types, directly determining whether your account doubles or crashes 👇


1️⃣ Preventive rate cuts


The economy is relatively stable, inflation is controllable, and interest rates have gently declined from their high levels.

📊 Historical performance: In the 12 months following a rate cut, the S&P has averaged a 13.2% increase.

Impact on the cryptocurrency market: It's like the 'Bitcoin halving rally', suitable for a slow bull market layout.


2️⃣ Panic rate cuts


Black Swan Attacks: Such as the 1987 stock market crash, the 1998 Russian default, and the 2020 pandemic.

📊 Historical Performance: Severe short-term fluctuations, but an average increase of 17.4% over 12 months.

Impact on the Crypto Market: Deep V trend, often violently rebounding after a crash — only those who hold can be winners.


3️⃣ Recession-style rate cuts


The economy has collapsed: Unemployment rate surges, corporate profits plummet.

📊 Historical Performance: Average decline of 14% in the S&P 3 months after rate cuts, still down 11.6% over 12 months.

Impact on the Crypto Market: Simply a bear market catalyst, BTC may halve again.


How to determine which category this round belongs to?


Rate cut magnitude: A cut of 50 basis points? Be careful, it may likely be a recession warning.
Unemployment rate: Refer to the 'Sam Rule' — if the average unemployment rate over the past 3 months is 0.5% higher than the low point of the year, be alert for recession.
Other indicators: Has the number of initial unemployment claims surged? Are corporate profits continuously declining? Is inflation fluctuating?

How does the current market view it?

From the data, this round is closer to 【Preventive Rate Cuts】 — not emergency firefighting, more like proactive soft landing.

Long-term positive for the crypto market 📈

But don't rush in blindly!

If employment data blows up, and profits clearly decline, the script may instantly change to a 'recession style', and the bottom-fishing U might really be fishing at the mountain top.


——— Follow me, Crypto Xuan Mi, top team support, only serving ambitious lunatics, leading you into the path of cashing out. You want to make money, I want to prove it, reply 666 in the comments to join Xuan Mi's top professional team.

Investment strategy advice:

Short-term look at sentiment, medium-term follow the data, long-term view on policy.

Key points to watch: Unemployment rate + Non-farm data + On-chain large holder movements.

Keep cash (U) ready, wait for clear direction before taking action.


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