#CPI数据来袭

Trading Route Map (Next 12–24 Hours)

Baseline: First Drop then Consolidation (55%)

• Main Premise: CPI Monthly Rate is Hot → Interest Rate Cut Expectations Decrease, Sentiment is Cautious. If DXY/U.S. Treasuries do not pull back, rebounds are mostly difficult to sustain.

• Strategy: Use the data post-opening range (daily highs/lows listed above) as risk anchor points; if the high is not broken → Short on highs, if the daily low is broken → Trend-following shorts.

Key Levels and Targets (Measured by “Range Measurement”)

• BTC

• Resistance: 114,451 (Range Top). Only if it stabilizes above 3 consecutive 15m candles, can we look for bullish extension to 115,8xx.

• Support: 113,064 (Range Bottom). If broken, measure down to ~111,677; watch for support/retest around 112,2xx.

• ETH

• Resistance: 4,465. Only if effectively broken can we look for ~4,628.

• Support: 4,303. If broken, measure down to ~4,140 (pay attention to the demand zone between 4,260–4,220).

• SOL

• Resistance: 228.0. Only if broken can we look for ~235.3.

• Support: 220.72. If broken, measure down to ~213.4.

(Above ranges and targets are based on current daily highs and lows measured at 1x movement.)

Bullish Repair Scenario (25%)

• Trigger Conditions: **DXY Pulls Back, 10Y Yield Breaks ~4.0%** and the coin price re-establishes above the range top.

• Operation: If the range top does not break on retest → Lightly long, target to look for upward measurement levels; if volume does not cooperate, quickly reduce positions.

Expanded Weakening Scenario (20%)

• Trigger Conditions: DXY Continues to Rise, 10Y Goes Up or Market Leverage is Too High, Causing De-leveraging.

• Range: BTC Additional -2%~ -4%, ETH -3%~ -6%, SOL -5%~ -8% Extension; strictly use the range top as the risk stop line.

Execution Key Points

• Do Not Chase Trades: Wait 15–30 minutes for structure to develop (false breakouts are very common).

• Risk Control: Single Trade Risk ≤1–2%; Short Positions Stop Loss Above Range Top, Long Positions Stop Loss Below Range Bottom.

• Pay Attention to Turning Points: If you see DXY pull back + 10Y moving down, while BTC regains volume above the range top, the bearish assumption fails and switch to bullish thinking.

Summary in One Sentence: Data is Hot, Macro is Tight, prioritize shorting on rebounds; only switch to bullish if it stabilizes above the daily range top and DXY/U.S. Treasuries pull back.