While many still dismiss Dogecoin as an online joke, this meme coin, launched in 2013, has quietly achieved a remarkable transformation. The first Dogecoin ETF is set to launch on September 11th! This is not only a compliant financial product focused on the meme coin in the crypto market, but also marks the first time that a culturally driven asset has received mainstream recognition on Wall Street.
The market couldn't contain its early celebrations: from September 1st to 4th, DOGE's price soared from $0.21 to $0.258, with the largest increase in four days reaching 17.6%. Daily trading volume was even more dramatic, soaring from $1.2 billion on August 30th to $2.65 billion on September 3rd, a surge of over 120% in just three trading days. The enthusiasm of retail investors and institutions rushing to enter the market was palpable even through the screen!
1. Before the ETF listing, Dogecoin's volume and price exploded: Funds are betting on a historic opportunity
This isn't just any price fluctuation; it's a historic opportunity for investors to gamble on the legalization of memecoins. Analysts at the crypto data platform Glassnode succinctly put it this way in their latest report. Peeling back the market details, this surge reveals three key characteristics, each of which is remarkable:
The price broke through a key resistance level, and medium and large investors quietly entered the market: Dogecoin had previously been trading sideways in the $0.22-$0.23 range for two weeks, seemingly on hold. It wasn't until September 2nd, on the back of positive news about the ETF, that it broke through the $0.25 resistance level for the first time, closing the day firmly at $0.248. More importantly, at that moment of breakthrough, the one-hour trading volume reached $420 million, a 50% increase from the previous period. This demonstrates that buying wasn't just blind retail buying; rather, medium and large investors were actively investing.
The actions of retail investors and institutions diverged, and institutions began to quietly buy the bottom: data from the Bybit platform showed that from September 1 to 4, retail investors' holdings increased by 23% month-on-month, and most of them entered the market in the range of 0.23-0.24 US dollars, which was a veritable "rise chasing army"; on the other hand, "crypto-related funds" under institutions such as Grayscale and Ark also increased their holdings of Dogecoin-related derivatives by 15%. Without any fanfare, they are quietly making arrangements.
Sentiment indicators are maxed out, and optimism is approaching the peak of the 2021 bull market: On the X platform, the DOGE ETF topic exceeded 50 million views in three days; the MyDoge wallet saw a single-day peak of 18,000 new users; and discussions about "Dogecoin hitting $0.30" have tripled compared to the previous month. Current market optimism is almost catching up to the peak of the 2021 bull market.
Dogecoin began as a programmer's casual joke, but now Wall Street is finally recognizing its value, not because of its impressive code but because of its strong community. Jordan Jefferson, CEO of DogeOS and MyDoge, stated on the X platform, "The approval of an ETF is essentially institutional recognition that cultural consensus is central to asset value. This is a breakthrough for all memecoins."
2. The 1940 Act Paved the Way: Why Was This ETF Approved First? Regulators Played a Compromise
The key reason why this Dogecoin ETF was able to be launched so quickly is that it bypassed the regulatory minefield of crypto spot funds. It does not directly purchase Dogecoin spot, but is an alternative investment tool established in accordance with the 1940 (Investment Company Act), mainly investing in Dogecoin futures contracts, trust products and related industry chain assets.
This design cleverly avoids the SEC's biggest concern, namely the manipulation of crypto spot prices, and shortens the approval cycle by more than 60% compared to traditional spot ETFs.
A comparison with other memecoin ETF applications in the current market shows how obvious its "first-mover advantage" is:
ETF Types and the SEC's Attitude: The Bitwise Dogecoin ETF postponed its August 28th ruling to November 12th. The portfolio includes some spot-linked assets, prompting the SEC to conduct an additional review of price fairness. The approved ETF took only 45 days from application submission to listing. It invests exclusively in compliant futures and trusts, and also meets the requirements of the 1940 Act through third-party custody and daily valuation disclosures.
This isn't just luck; it's an innovative regulatory approach. Crypto compliance lawyer Mark Stein analyzed that the 1940 Act provides a compromise for crypto ETFs, satisfying the SEC's investor protection requirements without waiting for full compliance in the spot market. More memecoin ETFs are sure to follow this path.
3. Technical and Sentimental Resonance: Can Dogecoin Reach $0.40? Risks Hidden in the Carnival
Dogecoin is currently in a critical trading range, with technical and emotional factors tied very closely together. Prosperity and loss are common to all.
Resistance and support: $0.26 is the life and death line, and $0.23 is the safety cushion: In the short term, the resistance is mainly concentrated at $0.25-0.26. On September 4, it rose to $0.258 and then fell back. This range has been the "pressure intensive area" since November 2023. It is not so easy to break through; the support level is at $0.23, which is the low point of the pullback on September 3 and the "starting point" of this rise. Once it falls below, it may trigger a wave of panic selling.
Target Forecast: $0.26, could it reach $0.35 in the short term? Many technical analysts believe that if Dogecoin can break through $0.26 after the ETF is listed and its hourly trading volume remains above $500 million, the short-term target could be $0.35. If market sentiment continues to heat up, it could even reach $0.40.
Risk Warning: "Market Capitalization/Community Activity" Reaches a High, Beware of "Exhaustion of Good News": Despite widespread bullish sentiment, analysts are repeatedly warning of "speculative risks." Dogecoin's current "Market Capitalization/Community Activity" ratio has reached its highest level since the 2021 bull market. If the "exhaustion of good news" occurs after the ETF's listing, a 10%-15% correction is likely to be triggered. At that point, $0.22 would be a key stop-loss level; a break below this could lead to further declines.
The view of CryptoDog, a well-known trader on the X platform, is very representative: "The core of the Dogecoin ETF is not 'practicality', but consensus of belief. It is the first ETF that does not consider 'code technology' but only 'cultural value'.
But don't forget, belief can push prices up, but it can also make them fall faster when it's shattered. Don't forget the risks in the midst of revelry.
The Second Half of Memecoins: Will More Jokes Become Assets? The Industry is About to Reshuffle
The significance of this ETF is far more than just "another trading product." It is likely to rewrite the entire meme coin market landscape:
With the opening of institutional access, Wall Street is beginning to test the waters: Previously, institutions shied away from memecoins due to "compliance issues." Now, with ETFs, they can participate through "regulated vehicles." According to a Bloomberg survey, five Wall Street asset management firms plan to allocate 1%-2% of their positions in the ETF once it's listed, as a small test of the waters.
Meme coins will need to be stratified, and hype coins will be eliminated. In the future, meme coins with strong communities and high activity, like Shiba Inu Coin and Pepe Coin, may accelerate their ETF applications. Meanwhile, those "hypothetical meme coins" with little consensus and relying solely on hype will be gradually eliminated by the market. The meme coin industry is about to undergo a major reshuffle.
Cultural value is officially priced and no longer depends solely on Musk's tweets: As Jordan Jefferson said, "This release proves that memes are the market." In the past, the price of Dogecoin was often driven by a tweet from Musk; now with the endorsement of compliant financial products, its cultural influence has begun to be transformed into "quantifiable asset value", and its value logic has become more stable.
However, regulatory uncertainty remains a significant obstacle: While the SEC has approved this ETF, its stance on memecoins themselves remains unclear. The introduction of special regulatory rules for memecoins in the future could potentially impact the future development of such products. While it's fine to be optimistic now, it's important to remember that memecoins are, at their core, consensus-driven, and consensus is more volatile than any other asset, warns Mark Stein.
V. Conclusion: 9/11: A Cultural and Financial Milestone for the Crypto Market
From its initial beginnings as a joke code written by programmers in 2013 to its launch as a regulated ETF on Wall Street on September 11, 2025, Dogecoin's decade-long history epitomizes the gradual convergence of crypto culture and traditional finance, from their initial conflict. The launch of this ETF not only provides Dogecoin with a new trading channel but also gives "memes," a cultural form born from the internet, its first legitimate recognition in mainstream financial markets.
In the next few days, the market's attention will be on the performance on the first day of listing on September 11: if the trading volume exceeds US$3 billion after the opening and the price can stabilize at US$0.26, then the era of memecoin ETFs will officially begin; if it opens high and closes low, we must be wary of the decline of short-term speculative sentiment.
But no matter what the short-term trend is, one thing is certain: the crypto market is no longer just technology-driven Bitcoin and Ethereum. "Culture-driven" meme coins are also beginning to have their own place on Wall Street.
For the average investor, rather than worrying about whether to chase the rally, it's better to understand the underlying logic: The true value of the Dogecoin ETF is its demonstration that consensus is value. However, the flip side of consensus is high volatility. A rational approach to every milestone is the key to long-term survival in the crypto market.
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