Brothers, doesn't yesterday's market feel like being 'woken up by an alarm clock but continuing to stay in bed'? ETH surged yesterday but ultimately retreated back under the covers, continuing to hover in the range of 4,300–4,380. It's like a cat arching its back, ready to pounce at any moment, yet hesitating to strike.

Review of yesterday: the news has been 'enhanced', but the market is experiencing 'indigestion'

Last night's news was simply a 'chain explosion':

20:30 US August PPI data (inflation indicator) — higher than expected, which should have ignited the market, but as a result, ETH surged and then was brought down, indicating that funds are still uneasy.

22:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventory & Strategic Petroleum Reserve Data — A significant reduction in crude oil inventories should bring inflationary pressure, but Wall Street chooses to wait and see, and the response in the crypto circle seems cautious.

01:00 US 10-Year Treasury Auction — Rising interest rates have heightened risk aversion, leading some funds to be cautious.

In summary: The data is like chili peppers, but the market hasn't cooked up a hot pot flavor; instead, it feels a bit stuffed. ETH has not formed a continuous surge and has instead returned to consolidation.

Technical Analysis:

Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands have contracted over the past few days, and recently there has been an upward expansion (right side pull-up and pullback), indicating a switch in volatility from low to high — the market is 'brewing' direction.

Moving Average Performance: Short-term moving average (purple) and medium-term moving average (orange) have shown a convergence or even a brief crossover on the right side, while the price stands above these moving averages, short-term bulls are dominant, but the moving averages have not yet formed a solid support for long-term volume protection.

Candlestick and Volume: If it breaks above, need to see if the 1-hour close holds above the upper band (around 4,410 on the chart) and is accompanied by increased volume; if the volume does not cooperate, it can easily be pulled back to the 4,350-4,300 range.

Upper and Lower Band Effects: Near the upper band (4,410+) there will be short-term profit-taking; if it breaks that level and increases in volume, the next resistance can be looked at around 4,500; conversely, a break below the lower band (around 4,250) would shift to consolidation or even a pullback, and caution should be taken around 4,200 as strong support may be tested.

Key Position:

Upper Resistance: 4,410 → 4,480 → 4,520

Lower Support: 4,300 → 4,250 → 4,200

Volume: The volume from yesterday's surge was insufficient; today needs a 'confirmation of increased volume' action to determine direction.

Simply put: ETH is stuck on a 'launch pad', ready to ignite at any moment, but it depends on whether today's rocket shoots straight into the sky or fails to ignite.

Today's Operating Logic: The suspense is tonight!

Bullish Script: If ETH can break out with volume around 4,410–4,480 before and after the US market tonight, it will be a 'volcanic eruption', with the target first looking at 4,520–4,600, continuing to open up bullish space.

Short Selling Script: If it breaks below 4,350–4,298 under the pressure of data and macro factors, it will be a 'earthquake collapse', with a very high probability of a pullback to 4,200.

Combining yesterday's capital performance, my view is very direct:

ETH still has short-term upward momentum, but only a breakout above 4,410 counts as a true breakout; otherwise, it remains in consolidation, or even a pullback.

Old Zhu's Strategy Suggestions (Morning Reference)

Conservative: Wait for a confirmed breakout (4,410+) before gradually buying, target 4,480–4,520.

Aggressive: Buy on the low end (4,350–4,360), place a stop loss below 4,298, betting on a rebound upwards.

Risk Reminder: There will also be an impact on interest rates from tonight's US Treasury auction, and the market may not truly express itself until midnight.

Old Zhu's Summary:

ETH now seems more like it's 'charging up' — if it can break through 4,410–4,480 with volume, today could very well be the launch day; on the contrary, if it can’t hold above 4,350 → 4,298, it might go back for a deep washout. Will you choose to 'chase the breakout' or 'wait for a pullback to buy'? Personally, I lean towards: waiting for confirmation and gradually following up, prioritizing stability.

Brothers, ETH has been holding back for three days, like a pressure cooker; if it doesn’t explode tonight, it will at least vent! Want to know my 'key breakout point'? Keep an eye on me, and I will take you to profit at the first moment, not being the last one to get off the bus.#ETH走势分析