Means rate cuts are coming with 100% chance but will there be 1 or 2?
I researched all the historic data and found out what will happen
Here is whether we'll have two rate cuts and how it will affect crypto
1/ The latest revisions just shattered the “strong labor market” narrative
The US quietly erased nearly a million jobs from the past year, showing the economy isn’t as resilient as advertised
That’s why cuts are now inevitable
Let's break down
2/ The Labor Department revised –911k jobs over the last 12 months
That’s the largest revision in history – bigger than the 2009 crisis
On average, job growth was overstated by ~76k per month
What looked like steady hiring was actually a much weaker trend
3/ The losses hit consumer-facing sectors hardest
- Leisure & hospitality shed –176k
- Trade/transport/utilities –226k
- Professional and business services –158k
These are the industries that drive everyday demand, and they were overstated the most
4/ Healthcare masked the weakness
Strip it out, and the US economy actually lost –142k jobs in the past four months
The labor market is being propped up almost entirely by health care
While most other sectors are already bleeding jobs
5/ For context, the 2009 revision was –802k jobs – today it’s –911k
That means the current adjustment is officially larger than the post-Lehman crisis
It’s a record-breaking downgrade that signals a far weaker job market than anyone thought
6/ Even recent months weren’t safe
May and June were revised down by –285k combined
This is the largest 2-month negative revision outside of the COVID crash
The idea of “strong, consistent” job gains was simply statistical noise
7/ These numbers leave the Fed with no choice
Its dual mandate is inflation and employment
Since 2021 the focus was almost entirely on inflation
Now employment is flashing red, forcing the Fed to pivot even while inflation remains above 2%
8/ Markets expect a 25 bps cut in September
This will be the first rate cut in 30+ years with CPI above 2% and GDP growth around 3%
That’s unprecedented , it shows how serious the labor market weakness is despite the inflation backdrop
9/ Both gold and equities front-ran the move
Gold is up +40% this year, miners nearly doubled, while the S&P 500 hit record highs
Investors have been positioning for Fed cuts
But the –911k job revision breaks the illusion of labor strength and raises volatility risks
10/ For crypto, this setup is bullish
Lower rates mean cheaper liquidity, more appetite for risk, and stronger flows into volatile assets
Stablecoin supply has been expanding, historically a lead indicator for Bitcoin rallies
11/ The coming weeks are critical
If the Fed cuts, it could ignite a Q4 rally across risk assets and kickstart the long-awaited altseason
But if job losses deepen, recession risks rise – and that could flip the narrative fast
Always DYOR and size accordingly. NFA!
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