After last night's non-farm data revision, the market is worried about an economic recession. Many believe that if a recession occurs, the Federal Reserve must bear 90% of the responsibility, as its inconsistent decisions are a significant reason.
In May 2021, inflation reached 5%, and the Federal Reserve claimed that inflation was temporary and continued quantitative easing, which led to subsequent inflation soaring to 9%; by September 2025, inflation dropped to 3%, yet the Federal Reserve refused to lower interest rates citing "preventing a rebound" as the reason, showing a contradictory stance.
The Federal Reserve's decisions are hard to separate from political factors: Chairman Powell knows well that if inflation rebounds during his term, he will only face criticism, but if he fails to lower interest rates and causes an economic downturn leading to unemployment, he would bear the blame for ruining the economy. After all, inflation can be tolerated, but unemployment is a political minefield.
He previously stated that the U.S. has achieved a soft landing, indicating that he does not view inflation as the greatest threat.
Currently, the Federal Reserve is controlled by the Democratic Party, and its policies include political considerations against Trump, with partisan struggles interfering with normal decision-making.
The risk of economic recession is increasing, yet the Federal Reserve stubbornly refuses to lower interest rates, which may ultimately cause ordinary people to endure the dual blow of persistent inflation and rising unemployment.