Market data and interest rate cut expectations interpretation

Key points: Overall data is weak, reinforcing the market's expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

📉 Three major weak data points

1. Non-farm payroll revision: Expected to be significantly downward revised

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2. Retail sales: Expected to decline

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3. CPI: Expected to rise (but within the Federal Reserve's tolerance range, mainly affected by tariffs)

The first two items clearly indicate a slowdown in the U.S. economy, which is the main reason for the market's bet on interest rate cuts.

🔍 A positive signal

- PPI (Producer Price Index): Performs well, but expected to have limited overall impact on the market.

📊 Current market expectations

- Logic: "Bad data = Faster rate cuts = Market positive"

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- Probability: The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September is 11.8%

⚡ Key events tonight

- Time: 22:00

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- Data: Non-farm payroll revision value

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- Impact: If the revision exceeds expectations significantly, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut may increase significantly.

🌅 Optimistic outlook

It's still too early to talk about an economic recession. If the Federal Reserve can decisively cut rates early, it may effectively curb potential recession risks.