The crypto market has already entered "combat readiness"— Bitcoin oscillated above 112,000 dollars for 3 days, while Ethereum was stuck in a narrow range around 4,300 dollars, with the entire market resembling a taut bowstring, as everyone waits for the "interest rate cut arrow" to be fired.
Bitcoin: 112,000 is not the end, 115,000 is the touchstone
In the last 48 hours, Bitcoin has undergone a thrilling tug-of-war. At 2 AM on Monday, a large order worth 2.3 billion dollars suddenly hit the market, causing the price to plummet from 114,000 dollars to 111,000 dollars. Just when retail investors thought a correction was coming, institutional funds immediately stepped in to take the reins, recovering all losses within 30 minutes. This kind of "sharp drop and sharp rise" trend reveals the fierce battle between bulls and bears at critical price levels.
Senior trader Old K said in the community: 'Now 112,000 has turned from a resistance level into a ‘line of life and death.’ Holding this position for 3 consecutive days indicates that the main force is secretly accumulating. But he also reminded that the Bollinger Bands have been narrowing for 5 days, and this calm often means a big market is approaching — either breaking through the resistance zone of 115,000 - 117,000, aiming for 120,000; or falling below the support of 110,000, retracing to 108,000.
It's worth noting that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust added 5,300 BTC yesterday, the largest single-day increase in the past month. Institutional actions may explain issues better than K-line charts.
Ethereum: 4300 USD hides secrets; ecological explosion may be the key to breaking the situation.
Ethereum is more 'patient' than Bitcoin, having been 'drawing horizontal lines' in the 4280-4350 USD range for the past 10 days. But those in the know understand that this narrow consolidation often precedes a storm — last November, before ETH broke through 3000 USD, it also consolidated for 12 days in the 2800-2900 range, then directly surged to 4800 USD.
The signals are becoming increasingly clear: the MACD indicator is forming a golden cross above the zero line, Layer 2's total locked value has surpassed 15 billion USD, and Arbitrum's daily transaction count has exceeded that of Ethereum's mainnet for the first time. All these are telling us: Ethereum's ecosystem is accumulating energy, just waiting for a catalyst.
4450 USD is the current first hurdle, with 3 failed attempts in the past two weeks. But as long as it can stabilize at 4500 USD, according to historical patterns, ETH is likely to experience a surge of 10%-12%, challenging last May's historical high.
Altcoins are celebrating early, be careful of the reversal after 'interest rate cuts are implemented.'
Unlike the cautious approach of Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins have already started to rally. Solana has risen 23% in the past 5 days, XRP broke through 0.7 USD to reach a three-month high, and even the long-silent Dogecoin suddenly surged 15%. This 'high Beta market' is very typical — whenever liquidity easing expectations heat up, funds shift from blue-chip coins to smaller altcoins.
But veteran players understand the routine of 'buying the expectation, selling the fact.' When the Federal Reserve first cut interest rates in March 2023, Bitcoin spiked and then fell back on the day of the announcement, and altcoins collectively plunged. Now chasing these excessively risen small coins may be stepping into a 'sweet trap.'
In the last 48 hours, pay close attention to these three signals.
Interest rate cut expectations: The market anticipates a 68% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 32% probability of a 50 basis point cut. An unexpected 50 basis point cut could directly ignite a market of 120,000.
Powell's speech: If he mentions 'sustained easing,' it is more favorable than the interest rate cut itself; if he emphasizes 'the risk of recurring inflation,' be cautious of profit-taking causing a crash.
Capital flow: Currently, the USDT premium rate has risen to 0.3%, indicating that off-market funds are entering. Once the premium disappears, caution is needed for a short-term pullback.
The current crypto market is like a roller coaster; while fastening your seatbelt, don’t forget — opportunities are often hidden in the volatility. Do you think Bitcoin can ride the wave of interest rate cuts to reach 120,000? Will Ethereum replicate last year's explosive growth? Leave your predictions in the comments, and come back after the meeting to see who the real 'prophet' is!
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