Recently, the overall cryptocurrency market has warmed up, with the meme coin sector taking the lead. According to CoinMarketCap data, in the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of altcoins where meme coins are located has increased by 4.64%, while trading volume has surged by 84.43%, significantly enhancing fund activity. Against this backdrop, SPX and coins like the chubby penguin (PENGU), with double-digit weekly gains and dramatic intraday fluctuations, have become core targets for fund chasing.
From the perspective of SPX's upward logic, multiple factors resonate:
Technical breakout ignites the market: On the daily chart, SPX successfully stands above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. This breakout is seen as an important signal for a medium to long-term trend reversal, marking its transition from previous consolidation to a new ascending structure. In shorter time frames like the hourly chart, after around a week of consolidation in the $1.05-$1.20 range, SPX recently broke through the upper resistance level with increased volume, subsequently climbing all the way to stabilize at $1.34 before publication. During this period, it also broke through the key resistance level of $1.30, with trading volume expanding to $42,000,000, an increase of over 50% compared to the previous day, confirming the effectiveness of the upward momentum with volume-price alignment.
Whale capital dominates the market: On-chain data shows that the recent rise of SPX is not driven by retail funds. CryptoQuant's average order size indicator shows that since SPX stabilized above $1, the proportion of large transactions over $100,000 has significantly increased, with some exchanges even seeing individual buy orders exceeding $500,000, indicating that large institutions or whale accounts are the main drivers of this market.
Short squeeze boosts price increase: During the price breakthrough of $1.30, a significant short squeeze occurred in the market. According to Coinalyze data, over $3 million in short orders were forcibly liquidated near this price level, and the release of short selling pressure further freed up upward space, pushing the price rapidly above $1.35.
$1.50 target achievable? The battle between resistance and support is hidden.
Currently, the upward trend of SPX is clear, and market expectations for it to hit $1.50 are heating up. However, caution is still needed regarding key resistance levels along the way:
$1.40 short-term resistance: Historically, the area around $1.40 has often become a temporary top for SPX, accumulating a significant amount of trapped positions. The rise to this area may face dual selling pressure from profit-taking and the release of trapped positions, and a brief correction or sideways consolidation cannot be ruled out.
$1.30 support level is crucial: If bullish momentum is insufficient, the price may pull back below $1.30 to seek support. It's worth noting that there is over $3 million in order liquidity in the $1.20-$1.25 range. If the price pulls back here, it may trigger some stop-loss liquidations, but it could also form a temporary bottom, confirming support for subsequent rises.
Capital and sentiment: Bulls are slightly dominant, but concerns remain.
From the derivatives market data, the bullish sentiment for SPX is temporarily prevailing, but overheating risks must be heeded:
Surge in open contracts: The open contracts (OI) of SPX on major exchanges like Binance and OKX rose from $80 million to $101 million within 24 hours, an increase of about 20%, indicating a rapid increase in market participation and active capital inflow.
Long-short divergence narrows: The current long-short ratio is 1.15, with bulls only slightly dominant, indicating that there is still divergence in the market regarding future trends and it is not a one-sided bullish view.
Funding rate turns positive: In the past two days, SPX's composite financing rate shifted from negative to positive, reporting 0.0122% before publication, meaning bulls are starting to pay fees to bears, reflecting a warming of short-term bullish sentiment, but excessively high rates could also trigger bulls to take profits, exacerbating price volatility.
Risk warning: The high volatility characteristics of meme coins remain unchanged.
Although SPX shows strong short-term performance, as a meme coin, its price volatility is greatly influenced by market sentiment and capital flows, lacking actual value support:
Regulatory risks remain: Recently, many countries have tightened regulations on cryptocurrencies. Meme coins, being highly speculative, may become a focus of regulatory attention, and policy changes could trigger sharp price fluctuations.
Capital withdrawal risk: The market for meme coins often exhibits short-term explosive growth. If whales start to cash out or the overall crypto market recovers less than expected, SPX may face rapid correction pressure.
In summary, after breaking through key technical levels, SPX still has short-term upward momentum, with a target of $1.50 being somewhat feasible; however, the battle between the resistance at $1.40 and the support at $1.30 will determine its future trend. For investors, it is essential to be cautious of high volatility risks, avoid chasing highs and lows, and rationally assess short-term speculative opportunities in meme coins.
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