Is the altcoin season disappearing? This round of the bull market may become a turning point for 'no altcoins'!
If this round of the bull market does not have an altcoin season, the cryptocurrency world will change drastically.
First, the conclusion: I firmly believe that the altcoin season will definitely come, but let's assume it really doesn't, and see what happens.
First of all, the profit-making effect will directly disappear.
Even if Bitcoin reaches a new high, it will be very difficult for retail investors to heavily invest at high prices—after all, the risk of buying at high levels is significant, and the profit potential is limited.
New investors are looking for a 50x return, not a 50% profit. Without the explosive growth of altcoins, the market won't heat up naturally, and there will be no word-of-mouth effect, new funds won't come in, and FOMO sentiment won't arise. At that time, institutions and project parties will have to spend more on advertising, creating a false illusion of profit to maintain enthusiasm, resulting in a vicious cycle.
Secondly, cyclical regulations will directly become ineffective. Traditional finance has the Merrill Lynch clock theory, which tells everyone what assets to allocate during different economic cycles.
The crypto market also relies on bull and bear cycles for sustenance. If this pattern is broken, funds will become more conservative. Large funds will struggle to form a consensus, market direction will be unclear, and major players will lose control of the pace, leading to skyrocketing operational costs. The concepts of bull and bear markets may become blurred, and the market will enter a chaotic period.
Finally, players in the market will accelerate their exit.
With a long absence of profit-making effects and no new funds coming in, old players will gradually leave the market. Currently, altcoins are still the key channel for attracting traffic, and they may only exit once players become familiar with the rules.
If Bitcoin's volatility continues to decrease and the circulating supply shrinks, the market will shift towards a derivatives-dominated landscape—leveraging, playing options, ultimately turning into a mature market similar to the US stock market.
More seriously, financing for truly promising projects will become more difficult—retail investors exiting leads to a collapse in token demand, stablecoin market capitalization shrinks, and good projects find it even harder to secure funding.
From a profit perspective, the existence of an altcoin season does make sense, but in the long run, the 'cooling down' of altcoins may be an inevitable path for the market to move towards health.
To make money in the cycle, one must step out of their cognitive range, but the prerequisite is to first recognize market rules. Whether the altcoin season comes or not ultimately depends on how the market itself decides.
Rather than waiting on the sidelines, why not join Sister Cai and burn together!
