U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data "Physical Examination" is Here 🕵️♂️
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the benchmark revisions for the 2025 non-farm employment data later today, covering April 2024 to March 2025. This is a "clean-up" of the past year's employment data, correcting previous "small errors" with more comprehensive and accurate data.
Significant Downward Revision Expected for Employment Numbers 📉
Several major institutions, such as Wells Fargo and Nomura Securities, predict that non-farm employment numbers may be revised down by 600,000 to 900,000 in one go! This translates to several hundred thousand fewer new jobs each month than previously thought, indicating that the earlier employment data might be a bit "inflated"...
Why the Revision? 🧐
This revision ensures that the data is closer to reality, making deep adjustments to corporate surveys using detailed administrative data, such as unemployment insurance contributions, to prevent statistical bias. It’s like refining the details of an economic portrait, giving us a clearer view of the true state of the U.S. labor market.
The "Butterfly Effect" of Economics and Policy 🦋
Two consecutive years of significantly lowering employment growth show that market weakness is more serious than previously imagined. This makes investors and the Federal Reserve more inclined to cut interest rates to boost the economy, with the likelihood of a 50 basis point rate cut in the September meeting significantly increased. Safe-haven assets like gold and Bitcoin are also rising accordingly.
Market Reaction and Investment Strategy 💡
The continuous downward revision of non-farm data suggests that "strong employment" may actually be misleading. For cryptocurrency and Web3 investors, it is crucial to pay attention to changes in U.S. dollar liquidity and U.S. Treasury yields. In the short term, it is advisable to take advantage of low prices to acquire quality digital assets, while in the long term, one should look at cyclical opportunities brought about by macro policy changes.
