#美联储降息 ：A New Wealth Watershed

The interest rate cut in September is almost a certainty. Employment continues to weaken: Non-farm payrolls only increased by 73,000 in July, and were revised down by 258,000 for May-June, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. Fiscal pressure is increasing: national debt is 35 trillion, with interest approaching 1 trillion a year; if rates are not cut soon, the snowball effect will become unmanageable.

Inflation has seemingly dropped to 2.7%, but the core remains at 3.1%, especially sticky expenditures like housing are not decreasing. The Federal Reserve is clearly more willing to accept inflation of 2.5%–3% rather than risk a hard landing for the economy.

Historical experience tells us: interest rate cuts often benefit risk assets. The stock market, gold, silver, bitcoin, and commodities may all benefit, while the US dollar index weakens, with funds flowing to emerging markets.

But this time the context is different: there is no large-scale QE, market expectations are highly consistent, and the logic is more about "saving fiscal health" rather than "saving the economy".

For individuals: borrowers benefit, savers lose; the housing market remains frozen; the winners are those who dare to leverage and acquire scarce assets, while the losers are those who cling to cash, fantasizing that rate cuts will equal recovery.