As the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on September 18 approaches, many friends have been asking me recently: after the interest rate cut lands, will the market directly welcome a wave of huge surges, or even kick off a new round of crazy bull market?
In fact, I mentioned in the article before: interest rate cuts are indeed worth looking forward to, but don't bet on a 'mindless bull market'. The reason many people have such doubts is essentially because they haven't clearly seen the market rules from the perspective of economic logic and historical trends. Today, we won't beat around the bush; let's directly review the trend of BTC after the last round of interest rate cuts, analyze the market with data, and then discuss how to adjust positions next—after all, an interest rate cut does not immediately mean a flood of liquidity and a huge surge.
History has long provided the answer: not necessarily!
The current market node is actually very similar to 2019—at that time, the market also preemptively digested the positive news of 'expected interest rate cuts,' and ultimately the market trend served as a reminder to the blindly optimistic. Looking back at 2019, the Federal Reserve had three interest rate cuts, and the specific rhythm and BTC's reaction are worth analyzing in detail:
- July 31: Interest rate cut of 25 basis points, this is the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve since the 2008 financial crisis;
- September 18: The second interest rate cut of 25 basis points, highly coinciding with this event;
- October 30: The third interest rate cut of 25 basis points.
There is an old saying in the cryptocurrency circle: 'Good news exhausted is bad news.' After these three interest rate cuts, BTC experienced short-term declines twice—indicating that the logic of 'interest rate cuts must rise' was flawed from the beginning.
Looking at the current situation, BTC is currently fluctuating at the daily MA120 position, which is the boundary between bull and bear markets. During this phase, one should be more vigilant and reduce risk exposure, rather than blindly being overly optimistic and increasing leverage. It is especially important to remind everyone: it is now September, and the market often experiences emotional battles before key points, making it easy to fall into traps when chasing highs blindly.
Next, let's focus on two key questions: How will BTC's market perform? How should we adjust our positions?
First, let's discuss the market trend: Bitcoin is currently in a weekly downtrend adjustment phase, with three key support levels that need close attention:
1. First support level: 108,000 USD. I have emphasized this position multiple times before; it is the core point of short-term fluctuations. Once it breaks, it is highly likely to probe further down;
2. Second support level: 98,000 USD. This current position has accumulated a large amount of chips, serving as an important medium-term support and a key battleground for bulls and bears;
3. Third support level: 94,000 USD. This position is relatively extreme; if it really falls here, there is no need to hesitate—one can directly position in the spot market while moderately adding some low-leverage trades, which will have a high cost-performance ratio.
Looking at the impact of the interest rate cut on September 18: In the early hours of September 18, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut results, which will likely only affect short-term trends, possibly stimulating a rebound in BTC prices. However, after the rebound, BTC will still return to the main line of weekly adjustments and continue to decline and build strength.
My personal judgment is that BTC is likely to first probe down to 98,000 USD, using a rapid decline to complete the liquidation of contracts and leverage. Subsequently, it will consolidate for about two days, then quickly rise above 105,000 USD, and continue to fluctuate between 105,000 and 110,000 USD.
The real major market is expected to start in October. As for the target price for this round of BTC, I still expect it to be above 150,000 USD—but the premise is to endure the current adjustment period and not lose chips in the fluctuations.
Lastly, I want to say: doing market analysis is never about betting on short-term fluctuations, but about focusing on the big picture and grasping major trends. Only by staying calm and understanding the adjustment logic can one seize true opportunities amidst the volatility and earn the money that should be earned!
