On September 6, Russian President Putin's advisor Anton Kobayakov made a significant statement at a press conference: the United States is trying to address the declining global trust in the dollar by 'rewriting the rules of the gold and cryptocurrency markets.' This remark not only pushed digital assets to the core of international policy discussions but also intensified the XRP community's discussions about whether 'cryptocurrency can alleviate the U.S. debt burden.'
The $35 trillion debt dilemma in the United States and the potential opportunity for XRP
By 2025, the scale of U.S. national debt has soared to $35 trillion, a figure that not only puts pressure on the domestic economy to repay but also poses a potential threat to global financial stability. In the cryptocurrency sector, the 35.6 billion XRP held by the issuer Ripple has become the focus of market attention—this vast pool of digital assets is viewed by some commentators as a 'potential tool to alleviate U.S. debt.'
Their core logic is: if the U.S. decides to include XRP as a strategic reserve asset in the future, the 35.6 billion XRP held by Ripple could theoretically be converted into 'debt repayment funds.' But to achieve this goal, XRP's price needs to reach a level sufficient to cover the debt.
XRP 'debt repayment price' calculation: needs to rise over 32 times from $3.03
Cryptocurrency commentator Pumpius has made specific calculations: to allow the total value of 35.6 billion XRP to fully cover the U.S. $35 trillion debt, each XRP would need to reach $983. Based on the current market price of XRP at $3.03, this means its price needs to rise over 32,347% (about 32 times) to achieve 'break-even.'
However, this calculation is based on two key assumptions, and there is still great uncertainty as to whether these assumptions can materialize:
- Policy level: The U.S. needs to clearly include XRP as a strategic reserve asset, but currently, the U.S. regulatory attitude towards cryptocurrencies remains cautious, and there is no policy support for 'any single cryptocurrency to become a strategic reserve.'
- Corporate level: Ripple needs to be willing and able to use all 35.6 billion held XRP for U.S. debt repayment. This involves not only the company's development strategy but also balancing shareholder interests and market liquidity among other practical issues.
Different price scenarios for XRP: from 'debt repayment' to 'supporting capital markets'
Pumpius further added that $983 is only the 'starting point of XRP's potential.' At different price levels, XRP could play different roles in the financial sector:
- $983: Theoretically could fully cover the U.S. $35 trillion debt, but only remains at the 'asset value equivalence' level. In practice, it still needs to solve complex issues such as currency exchange and market fluctuations;
- $10,000: Based on asset scale calculations, it could provide sufficient liquidity for the smooth operation of foreign exchange markets promoting central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) in various countries, which is a 'potential liquidity supplement' for the current global CBDC research and development wave;
- $100,000: Its total value would be sufficient to support the stable operation of securities and capital markets—being a core segment of the global financial system, the securities market has extremely high capital requirements. If XRP reaches this price, it could inject new vitality into the market;
- Over $1 million: Pumpius believes that at this time, XRP could anchor the biometric and genomic identity recognition system-related assets currently being tested on the XRP ledger (XRPL), combining cryptocurrency with cutting-edge technology, but this idea faces threefold challenges: technological, ethical, and regulatory.
From 'concept' to 'reality': The fourfold challenges faced by XRP
Although the XRP community has high expectations for its potential, these ideas still need to overcome multiple obstacles to materialize:
First, there are differences in international policies. Russia's warnings have sent a signal: countries remain highly vigilant against the 'U.S. rewriting the rules of cryptocurrency.' If the U.S. forces XRP to become a strategic reserve, it is likely to exacerbate differences among countries in the financial sector, thereby affecting XRP's global recognition.
Secondly, there is the risk of immature technology. The biometric and genomic identity recognition systems on the XRPL are still in the testing phase, and their security and stability have not been verified on a large scale. Binding important assets to such immature systems undoubtedly poses technological risks.
Furthermore, there is the issue of market volatility. The cryptocurrency market itself has high volatility characteristics, and for XRP to rise from $3.03 to $983, a massive amount of capital and sustained market confidence are needed, which is almost impossible to achieve in the short term; even if achieved in the long term, severe price fluctuations may trigger a chain reaction in the global financial market.
Finally, there is regulatory uncertainty. Currently, there are vast differences in regulatory policies regarding cryptocurrencies among countries, and some countries even explicitly prohibit cryptocurrency trading; the U.S. itself is also improving its cryptocurrency regulatory framework, and XRP still has a long way to go to break regulatory barriers and become a 'strategic reserve asset.'
Conclusion
Whether XRP can become the 'antidote to U.S. debt' and even play a more important role in the global financial system is not determined solely by price—it needs to overcome four hurdles: international political games, technological maturity, market rules, and regulatory policies. Although related ideas provide new directions for cryptocurrency applications, transitioning from 'concept' to 'reality' still faces a long and arduous challenge.
