September Trading Core: Focus on Interest Rate Cuts, Understand the Rhythm Before Taking Action

Market consensus is clear: the core theme of September trading is "interest rate cuts" — almost all actions currently revolve around this expectation.

As it stands, a 25 basis point rate cut is highly probable, but the previous non-farm payroll data showing 2.2 has raised questions about the possibility of a "50 basis point rate cut." This also means that the PPI data on September 10 at 20:30 and the CPI data on September 11 at 20:30 will become new variables; and behind the "variables," there is often a wide range of volatile market conditions.

Regarding the direction after the interest rate cut, the market actually has a tacit consensus: even if the specific increase is uncertain, "upward movement" remains the mainstream expectation. If the market advances according to this logic, the first target can be set at the daily level resistance of 113500; once it stabilizes above this level, the next phase can focus on liquidity competition opportunities around 117000.

However, potential variables need to be monitored: the final direction of CPI data and the pace of major funds' operations are both uncertain. If an unexpected "disruption" occurs in the market, the possibility of continuing to push up to 120000 cannot be ruled out. From a technical structure perspective, as long as the previous high point is not broken, even if there is an upward surge, it still remains within a reasonable fluctuation range of the "triple top," so there is no need for excessive panic.

In terms of operational strategy, it is recommended to focus mainly on "low bullish rebounds": lay out long positions based on support levels, look towards 117000 after stabilizing at 113500, and then judge whether to push towards 120000 based on real-time market conditions. As for short positions, it is temporarily advised to maintain a wait-and-see attitude, and consider layouts after the interest rate cut on September 18 and the policy signals become clear, which will be more prudent.