Many people have been watching the counterfeit coins until their eyes hurt, but the expected market has yet to arrive. It’s not that the market is deliberately "teasing", but these 4 key issues have quietly blocked the rising pace of the counterfeit:
1. Compliance funds are rushing, and the counterfeit has become "scraps"
Now the compliant channels have long intercepted funds——spot ETFs, blockchain stocks, mining company targets, these routes not only have strong regulatory support, but also have low thresholds and can steadily earn profits. Since one can steadily make money in the compliant market, who would still be willing to take high risks and "struggle" with the counterfeit that lacks transparency? Without the main funds to push the wave, even if the project story is told beautifully, it cannot support a decent market.
2. Don't be fooled by "interest rate cuts"! The macro environment hasn't given altcoins the opportunity to "soar".
Many people think that "interest rate cuts" mean the market is going to "inject liquidity", but they are actually two different things. An interest rate cut simply reduces the cost of using funds, much like a store saying "interest-free installment", but you still have to pay upfront; whereas "injecting liquidity" means delivering real cash directly to people, and the stimulating effects are vastly different. Moreover, the rhythm of leveraged markets has always been to "rally once, deleverage, and then rally again". It is inherently difficult to expect altcoins to continuously surge unidirectionally.
3. The number of altcoin "markets" is increasing, and this amount of capital is simply not enough to go around.
Don't be fooled by the overall market cap of altcoins approaching last December's range, as many individual assets are still struggling at the "halving line". In short, there is only so much capital in the market, but new altcoins keep emerging—there's only one bowl of water, but the number of bowls keeps increasing, so naturally, each bowl can't be filled. This leads to the perception that the market cap looks decent, but in practice, everyone experiences the frustrating situation of being "stuck" and "not making gains".
4. Retail investors all throw their money into altcoins, and the main players are not foolish enough to "lift the sedan chair".
Currently, most retail investors' funds are concentrated in altcoins: either selling popular coins too early and chasing the market, or getting stuck after buying in too early. The main players will never take off with retail investors who are fully leveraged; instead, they will gradually grind—washing the market while accumulating shares, shaking out the weak hands. If you have all your chips laid out in front of the main players, how could they possibly rally big? Instead, they will intentionally grind the market, waiting for you to give up and cut losses first.