Original title: Preparing for the Pitch with Arianna Simpson
Original author: a16z crypto
Original text organized and compiled by: Portal Labs
In the Web3 world, cycles are not accidents, but the norm. The alternation of bull and bear markets is like the tides of capital and the seasons of nature. For founders, the biggest challenge has never been predicting the next reversal, but rather how to survive amidst the ups and downs and even build long-term value against the odds.
Recently, a16z crypto partner Arianna Simpson shared her more than a decade of experience investing in the crypto industry on a podcast. From the shock of the Bitcoin white paper to the product-market fit of stablecoins, and the overlap of Crypto and AI, as well as advice for founders.
These observations and experiences are not only applicable to Silicon Valley. According to Portal Labs, they also provide useful references and insights for Chinese Web3 founders and high-net-worth investors.
The essence of the cycle
Arianna's entry point into crypto was the shock of reading the Bitcoin white paper over a decade ago. But what truly kept her in the space was not that momentary excitement but the ups and downs she experienced over the following decade. She witnessed the birth of Bitcoin, the prosperity of DeFi, the frenzy of NFTs, and the subsequent bubbles and cooling down. It was through this long-term observation that she gradually formed a clear understanding: the crypto industry has never been linear growth but rather moves forward in dramatic wave-like patterns, with emotions and capital ebbing and flowing.
Therefore, she shifted her focus from 'predicting the next windfall' to 'recognizing who is building against the wind.' Her investment approach resembles a form of following: following what the best founders are doing. When the strongest founders flock to stablecoins, funds should gather there; when cutting-edge teams continue to invest in Crypto × AI or DePIN, new value lowlands often take shape. It is not about having grand declarations first and then finding projects to validate them; rather, it is about calibrating one's worldview and capital allocation based on the directions of frontline builders.
For Chinese Web3 founders and high-net-worth investors, this methodology is more operational than 'cycle prediction.' For founders, the cooling-off period is not an excuse, but a selection: being able to push products and stacks forward in years without applause indicates that both direction and people are correct; for allocators, what truly needs assessment is not the heat of the theme, but whether the team can maintain speed, discipline, and mission density in challenging years. This order of 'identifying people—looking at long-term execution—then discussing valuation' can better navigate bull and bear markets than any short-term narrative.
Stablecoins
Narrow the focus to stablecoins. Arianna's judgment is very simple: the reason it has become the focus now is not because of new speculative stories, but because both ends are genuinely using it—consumers use it for cross-border transfers and to hedge against local currency fluctuations; businesses use it for settlements, allocations, and managing accounts receivable and payable. More importantly, over the past year and a half, the two infrastructure 'valves' of speed and cost have finally been opened, allowing stablecoins to transition from an imagined payment network to a real settlement layer.
This is particularly directly relevant for Chinese Web3 founders and high-net-worth individuals. For overseas teams, what often constrains them is not the product but the cash flow: how to stably, cost-effectively, and traceably send money to annotation teams in Southeast Asia, node maintainers in Africa, and channel partners in Latin America; how to enable overseas clients to complete payments without complex corporate processes; how to manage periodic receivables in a dollar environment and control exchange rate risks in a local currency environment. The value of stablecoins lies not in the 'coin' but in the 'track.' When you standardize funds in and out, identity verification, reconciliation receipts, and tax records onto an auditable track, the complexity of cross-border business will significantly decrease.
Of course, there will be more issuers, but users will not pay for every new symbol. Arianna's intuition is that in the short term, there will be a bloom of various options, but in the long term, it will definitely converge to a few 'scalable, reputable, and ecological' stablecoins; further down the road, front-end experiences will become abstract, and users will hardly perceive specific currencies, with back-end 'interoperability' automatically completing clearing and settlement.
This means that in the upcoming construction direction for stablecoins, the team should not waste energy on the impulse of 'I want to issue one too,' but should focus on more pragmatic designs, such as how to thoroughly 'native stablecoin' your business processes, risk control, and financial systems first. When your product can naturally operate on paths priced in dollars, settled in stablecoins, and reconciled on-chain, your cross-border efficiency and credibility will stand out among peers.
For high-net-worth individuals, stablecoins are a new cash management tool and a 'low-friction channel' for global liquidity. However, this does not equate to no risk; at the portfolio level, reserving a chain-based track for 'liquidity turnover' and 'hedging against local currency volatility' is a more future-oriented portfolio hygiene. In simple terms, two principles: choose counterparties carefully, diversify custody and wallets; treat 'compliance and explainability' as the first constraint rather than an afterthought.
Crypto × AI × DePIN
Arianna emphasizes that super cycles are often not driven by a single technology but rather the overlay of several curves resonating within the same time window. The clearest combination today is the decentralized incentives of crypto, combined with the centralized computing power and data hunger of AI, overlaid with the real-world resource orchestration of DePIN.
Translate it into the 'actionable' language for Chinese founders: We have a rare long-term accumulation in hardware supply chains, manufacturing and deployment, and engineering organization at edge nodes. If you can use stablecoins to connect the 'contribution—measurement—payment' chain to incentivize real-world data and resources to go on-chain, and then package these resources into standard products consumable by AI (datasets, annotations, bandwidth, storage, inference time slices), you have the opportunity to create a 'supply-side platform.' This is not PPT-style token economics; it is serious operations: defining indicators, anti-cheating measures, settlement frequency, dispute resolution, and reputation systems—all need to be engineered.
Another important thread is 'authenticity.' The existence of deepfake content is not frightening; what is frightening is an unverifiable environment. Verifiable timestamps, generation pathways, device signatures, and traceability of operational entities are all 'new utilities' for the future of content and commodity internet. This presents immediate incremental opportunities for Chinese teams engaged in branding abroad, second-hand trading, and luxury goods circulation. Doing the difficult yet correct things: making 'verifiable authenticity' the default rather than an optional paid feature.
Looking at AI Agents. Giving a credit card to a semi-mature agent for 'self-service online shopping' is irresponsible; but providing it with a wallet that has a limit, is revocable, and auditable, allowing it to complete a set of tasks (subscription, purchasing APIs, paying commissions) within a clear strategy, is realistic and feasible. In other words, 'the wallet is the permission system.' The real application is not the exaggerated 'universal agent,' but the vertically deep 'bounded rationality agent'—binding permissions, budgets, logs, and counterparties together using on-chain wallets within a strongly constrained business domain.
Financing and governance
The financing environment of 2020-2021 may have left many in Web3 with the illusion that no deck or model is needed, and investors would offer outrageous terms via private messages on Twitter.
Arianna puts it bluntly: it is a 'twilight moment illusion,' not the norm, and today we need to return to the basics. Prepare materials that can be effective, honestly present metrics, and set financing goals at conservative yet achievable positions; it is better to close one reasonable round first and then snowball than to open with 50 million and end up with nothing.
For Chinese founders, the more realistic sequence is: first get the foundation running, then talk about money. First, the engineering resilience of technology and product, performance, risk control, observability, and operability; second, compliance and policy pathways, KYC/AML, cross-border data segmentation, auditable funds and data flows, tax and invoice closure; third, verifiable business closure, real payments, positive unit economics, and stable repayment rhythm. In publicly available narratives, talk less about 'coins' and focus more on supply-side infrastructure: for example, using DePIN to standardize computing power / bandwidth / sensor data into billable APIs, or using RWA to digitize existing assets and embed them into compliant issuance and settlement processes. Once these three things have a chain of evidence, supplement capital in stages with milestones, rather than letting financing dictate business.
Governance must also return to common sense. A fifty-fifty split is not fair; it is inaction. Equity, board of directors, reserved matters, vesting periods, cliff periods, founder departure clauses, and intellectual property ownership may not be sexy, but each one determines whether you can weather the first major storm. Arianna does not shy away from the merits of a 'single founder'—at least there won't be disputes with oneself. Portal Labs suggests that instead of getting entangled with the 'number of partners,' it is better to get the 'list of rights and responsibilities' and 'conflict resolution mechanisms' in place; envisioning the worst-case scenarios clearly allows for faster action in the best times.
Competition and expansion
Being copied is not news; being obsessed with the line is. Arianna's method is to reclaim the narrative: defining topics with product rhythm, key metrics, and customer stories, rather than directing traffic to competitors. For Chinese Web3 teams, it is especially important to fill in the 'infrastructure' for PR and communication: professional branding teams, media whitelists, KOL advocates, user community education, and transparency in technical documentation. Narratives are not PR jargon but the evidence of your continuous delivery.
At the same time, uncontrolled growth is both a good thing and a crisis. When service water levels are breached, it should be handled in a tiered manner like firefighting: first protect the safety of funds and user assets, then ensure availability, and finally optimize the experience. If necessary, limiting traffic, opening temporary whitelists, outsourcing customer service and risk control, or even quickly bridging to supplement computing power are all acceptable trade-offs. Write the 'disaster recovery plan' when the weather is calm, not learn it from trending topics.
Mergers and acquisitions are another signal. Traditional giants are beginning to buy in crypto, and 'puzzle-like mergers and acquisitions' are also emerging within the industry. The ideal scenario is that you are the acquirer, but outstanding targets for acquisition could also be the best solution for the team, users, and early shareholders. The evaluation criteria are straightforward: strategic fit, user value, team continuity, and respect for the technological path. Leave emotions for social circles and the terms for lawyers.
Do the difficult yet correct things for a longer time.
The market will not provide founders with standard answers, and the cycle will not either. Therefore, don't rush to predict the wave; focus on those who can still push the system forward against the wind, and allocate time and resources to them. In the context of China, the answer is both simpler and more challenging: slogans should not just be shouted; the accounts, systems, and compliance documents must be solidified; growth is not about trending topics but rather about stable, reusable supply and repayments; competition is not about lines but about holding narrative power and reclaiming topics through continuous delivery.
If there is one thing to say to Chinese Web3, Portal Labs believes it should be: first, focus on doing the difficult yet correct things for a longer time; chase fewer trends, and pay attention to who is still present and whose systems are still running a decade later. Cycles will continue to rise and fall, but what truly determines success or failure has never been the weather; it is about what foundation you build your house on.
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