According to BlockBeats, on-chain data analyst Murphy has analyzed whether ETF net inflows equate to real buying demand, particularly since the launch of BTC and ETH spot ETFs. The inflow and outflow of funds have become key indicators in the market, often seen as signals of institutional investors increasing their positions. However, the relationship between ETF net inflows and actual buying demand varies between BTC and ETH due to different trading logics.
For BTC, an analysis of CME open interest and ETF holdings changes shows a strong correlation between BTC price increases and ETF net inflows. The changes in CME futures positions are significantly smaller compared to ETFs, indicating that traditional funds primarily invest in BTC through direct spot ETF purchases rather than leveraging or arbitrage positions via futures. This suggests that BTC's price rise is largely driven by real spot buying demand, with traditional funds preferring long-term holdings.
In contrast, the analysis of ETH's CME open interest and ETF holdings changes reveals a similar correlation between ETH price increases and ETF inflows. However, unlike BTC, ETH futures positions also rise significantly, sometimes exceeding half of the ETF inflows. This indicates that traditional funds employ a combination strategy of spot and futures for ETH, including:
1. Basis arbitrage: Buying spot ETFs while shorting futures to earn basis profits (direction-neutral).
2. Directional trading: Unlike BTC, ETH's price movement is not solely driven by spot ETF demand.
