Bitcoin is currently moving horizontally within a range of 104,000 to 116,000 dollars. If it truly exceeds 116–120 thousand dollars with a significant trading volume, this is an indicator that the upward trend has resumed. If it breaks below 104 thousand dollars, the market will move towards a deeper correction. The price is now approximately 110–112 thousand dollars.
Why is the movement horizontal?
Central banks and inflation and employment indicators are giving different signals; liquidity is present, but people do not move unless there is a clear signal indicating the way. Also, there are institutions actually entering, which creates steady demand, but at the same time, there are owners selling at resistances to realize profits. This balance breaks any clear momentum.
And there is accumulation from a few large addresses and distribution from other addresses transferring amounts to the exchanges. Accumulation is a good sign for the long term, but distribution of amounts is swirling the market around itself.
Open Interest is high and funding rates are positive — this means there are dominant long positions, but this situation is very sensitive to any downward spark, as it generates collective liquidations that amplify the drop.
People took profits when we reached the peak, which made retail hesitant. Institutions are waiting for bigger catalysts. The fear of losing profits plus waiting for catalysts creates a state of stagnation.
A quick political and economic reading.
Bitcoin is not just a technical asset; it is a reflection of the balance of interests of global monetary policies and institutional desire for alternative assets and movements of large holders. If monetary policies lean towards easing and institutional flows and demand continue, it could strengthen if regulatory pressure or a sudden large sell-off occurs; everything could turn upside down. This means the big decision is not technical; it is a political economic one par excellence.
60% probability of continued sideways movement within the range of $104 thousand and $116 thousand over the coming weeks. Accumulation continues, but there is no strong impetus to break the range.
25% probability of a bullish break above $116–120 thousand, which could open a rapid upward wave reaching the range of $140–180 thousand if accompanied by volume and stable institutional flows.
And a 15% probability of a bearish break below $104 thousand, which could drag us into a correction toward $93–95 thousand or deeper if a large liquidation or significant sell-off occurs in the exchanges.
I tend to lean towards the sideways possibility because supply and demand forces are still close and defined by different players.
The critical levels you need to watch are immediate support around $104 thousand; breaking this is considered the end of the comfort zone. Deeper support: $93 to $95 thousand is a real correction zone that may take time to recover from, and critical resistance: $116–120 thousand; breaking it with real volume will change the rules of the game.
On-chain indicators and derivatives are being monitored. Exchange reserves: a decrease means less selling pressure and support for the price, while an increase means the opposite. HODL waves and MVRV indicate whether people are spending more or ready to take profits. Open Interest, Funding Rate, and the long/short ratio on major platforms are sensitive indicators of an approaching liquidation wave or pressure on positions.
Bitcoin is currently in a phase of accumulation and absorption of supply, not a strong upward start and not an immediate collapse. The market needs a clear reason to choose a direction: an important macro news, a significant institutional pump, or a wide liquidation in derivatives. Until that reason occurs, maintain strict risk management, a clear entry and exit plan, and scale into positions if you are a long-term believer. Optimism is acceptable, but it must be based on clear rules, not on wishes.
And this is obviously just an analysis and opinion, not financial advice 👻😊