Cryptocurrency market performance
Currently, the total market value of cryptocurrencies is $3.87 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.09%, amounting to $2.24 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $288.1 billion, with a 7-day increase of 1.7%, of which USDT accounts for 59.2%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small portion rose while most fell, including: M with a 7-day increase of 248.24%, PUMP with a 7-day increase of 38.69%, IP with a 7-day increase of 33.08%, SKY with a 7-day increase of 18.29%, and POL with a 7-day increase of 17.46%.
This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $250 million; the net outflow for Ethereum spot ETFs was $787 million.
Market Forecast (September 8 - September 13):
Currently, the RSI index is 48.34, showing a neutral to weak trend. The Fear and Greed Index is at 49 (the index is higher than last week). Although a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is highly likely, September is traditionally a weak month for cryptocurrencies, and the market may face some downward pressure.
BTC Core Range: $107,000-111,000, short-term traders can safely go long near support and go short near resistance.
ETH Core Range: $4,200-4,400, short-term traders can choose to buy high and sell low, and follow the trend after breaking through the range.
The current market is in a range-bound fluctuation; focus can be placed on some strong coins: such as SOL with potential technical breakthroughs and XRP, which has ended litigation with the SEC.
Understanding Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
1. On September 1, cryptocurrency borrowed through self-managed pensions surged into Australia's approximately $2.8 trillion savings pool;
2. On September 1, the Ethereum Foundation officially stated that the Holešky testnet has reached the end of its lifecycle as planned and will soon cease operations;
3. On September 2, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen stated that the Federal Reserve should and must remain independent, but it has indeed made many mistakes. The Federal Reserve Board nominee Milan is very likely to take office before the September Federal Reserve meeting. It is believed that the Supreme Court will support President Trump's tariffs;
4. On September 4, according to The Information, the world's largest prediction market Polymarket has been approved by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to return to the U.S. market soon;
5. On September 4, the Trump family supported mining company American Bitcoin (code ABTC) on its first day of listing, with the stock price rising nearly 17% to $8.04 per share, peaking at $14 during the day. The stock's trading volume on the first day exceeded 29 million shares;
6. On September 5, Ethereum's first holder institution Bitmine increased its holdings by 48,225 ETH, worth $207.54 million;
7. On September 5, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) proposed to provide a safe harbor for cryptocurrencies and reform broker-dealer rules. The proposed rule changes could affect the SEC's guidance on broker-dealers, custody, and reporting, possibly allowing cryptocurrency companies to operate in the U.S. with less regulatory oversight and reducing the risk of facing legal actions;
8. On September 5, Justin Sun's address was blacklisted by WLFI after transferring out 50 million WLFI, leaving a remaining holding of 545 million worth $102.3 million.
Macroeconomics
1. On September 4, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level since June, further proving that the labor market is cooling. Data shows that for the week ending August 30, initial jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 237,000. The median forecast of institutional surveys was 230,000. The number of continuing jobless claims remained stable at 1.94 million;
2. On September 4, according to CME's 'FedWatch', the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is 97.4%, and the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 2.6%;
3. On September 5, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payrolls for August increased by 22,000, expected to be 75,000.
ETF
According to statistics, from September 1 to September 5, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. was $250 million; as of September 5, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.961 billion, currently holding $19.91 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.778 billion. The total market value of Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. is $146.032 billion.
U.S. Ethereum spot ETF net outflow: $787 million.
Foreseeing the Future
Event Preview
1. EDCON 2025 will be held in Osaka, Japan from September 16 to 19, bringing together members of the global Ethereum community to discuss protocol updates, ecosystem development, and the future of Web3;
2. Korea Blockchain Week 2025 will be held in South Korea from September 22 to 28.
Project Progress
1. Nasdaq-listed company Bit Digital will hold a shareholders' meeting on September 10, 2025, proposing to increase authorized capital from $3.5 million to $10.1 million to support growth strategies, including the purchase of Ethereum;
2. Mitosis's MITO Genesis airdrop claim will end on September 11 at 21:00. The Mitosis Foundation stated that the MITO used to pay for claiming gas fees has been deposited in the claiming addresses registered by users.
Important Events
1. On September 11 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the August unadjusted CPI annual rate;
2. On September 11 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims number for the week ending September 6 (in ten thousand);
Token Unlocking
1. Apots (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on September 11, worth approximately $48.97 million, accounting for 2.2% of the circulating supply;
2. Axie Infinity (AXS) will unlock 652,500 tokens on September 9, worth approximately $1.55 million, accounting for 0.25% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is committed to turning professional analysis into your practical tool. We analyze market trends for you through (weekly insights) and (in-depth research reports); with the exclusive column (Hotcoin Selection) (AI + expert dual screening), we identify potential assets for you, reducing trial and error costs. Every week, our researchers also meet you face-to-face through live broadcasts to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment itself carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.
