Recently, Bitcoin (#BTC ) has surged to a new high, breaking $112,000, and the entire cryptocurrency community is discussing: Is this wave of the bull market nearing its end?💥#加密市场回调
Market analyst CryptoBirb stated that in terms of the timeline, this round of Bitcoin's bull market has already gone through 95%, meaning that there is only a little bit left until the cycle peak. Since the low point in November 2022, Bitcoin has experienced a rally of 1,017 days, and the end of the bull market seems to be right ahead.#九月加密市场能否突破？
⏳How far is it to the peak?
Look at the historical data, the BTC bull market generally peaks after experiencing a bottom for about 1,060 to 1,100 days. This time, if we follow this pattern, the cycle peak is likely to fall between the end of October and mid-November 2025.
Additionally, the halving effect is also very crucial. Since the halving in April 2024, 503 days have passed, and historical data shows that price peaks usually occur 518 to 580 days after halving. This means that Bitcoin has entered the so-called 'hot zone'🔥, which implies that volatility will increase and prices are likely to fluctuate significantly.
⚠️Warning signal: A major drop usually occurs after the peak.
CryptoBirb especially reminds everyone that historical trends tell us: after the peak of a bull market, Bitcoin often experiences a significant pullback of 70% to 80%, lasting about 370 to 410 days, which means it will likely continue until the first or second quarter of 2026.
So, even if it rises again, it may only be the last wave of 'sprint', and risks still exist.
📉Short-term volatility pattern: September is usually bad, while October-November has many opportunities.
From a seasonal perspective, September is usually the weakest month for Bitcoin, with an average decline of about 6.17%. Although third-quarter data varies, overall, the decline in September is quite common.
The good news is that October and November usually perform more actively, especially a date highlighted by some analysts, September 17, which is worth paying attention to.
CryptoBirb also reminds everyone to mark October 22 on the calendar, as it may be a key point in this cycle📅.
⛏Miner costs and market health.
Fortunately, from the miner's perspective, both hashrate and costs are stable. The current mining cost is about $95,400, indicating that the market environment is still healthy, with low surrender risk💪.
🛠Technical support and resistance.
From a technical perspective, the current key support levels are at the 50-week moving average of $95,900 and the 200-week moving average of $52,300. In the short term, the breakout point of the 200-day moving average on the daily chart is at $111,000, with local support at $107,700 to $108,700, and resistance at $113,000 to $114,100.
Currently, both short-term and long-term signals are bearish. CryptoBirb warns that if Bitcoin falls below $107,000 to $108,000, it may trigger a secondary pullback of 20% to 30%.
Summary: The final sprint, where risk and opportunity coexist.
In summary, the Bitcoin bull market is about 50 days away from its peak. With the arrival of the altcoin peak season in October and November, BTC may experience a final wave of increase, but the risk of a pullback after the peak cannot be ignored. Investors can focus on key support levels, technical signals, and the potential high point date of October 22.
Friends in the crypto circle, this sprint opportunity is rare, but don't forget risk control⛔, keep pace, operate steadily, and look forward to the exciting moment of the bull market's conclusion!🚀💎
Like👍, share, follow me, and let me help you capture more market opportunities while watching the rise and fall of bulls and bears together! Let's work hard together!
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