The non-farm data has been released, and it is worse than I personally expected. The number of jobs is only 22,000, which not only significantly falls short of the previous value and expectations, but is also the lowest labor force growth data in the last five years, except for October 2024. In simple terms, the U.S. labor market is really not doing well, and economic problems have already begun to emerge.
The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%. Although it is not historically high, it has increased by 0.9% over the past year, which is also something the Federal Reserve is quite concerned about. The market is now fully expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, but such a rate cut is likely to occur in the context of economic risks.
Rate cuts are always accompanied by crises, but history has proven that each rate cut can reverse a crisis. It remains to be seen whether this time can continue that history!
