Recent market performance has led many to question whether the bull market has reached its end. Bitcoin has fallen from a high of $124,000 to $107,000, while Ethereum briefly broke $4,956 in August, setting a new historical high, even showing a divergence where 'ETH rises while BTC falls.' This situation has also occurred in previous bull markets; so does it mean the bull market has ended, or is it merely a normal signal during the bull market?
Looking back at history, each round of a bull market generally divides into three phases: the early bull, the mid bull, and the late bull. In the early bull phase, the market has just emerged from the shadow of a bear market, and investors generally have a lower risk appetite. Funds tend to flow into relatively safe assets like Bitcoin, so BTC often experiences the first surge, with its market cap share rising to over 60%, while ETH and altcoins remain relatively weak. In the mid bull phase, as market confidence gradually recovers, funds begin to shift towards riskier Ethereum, with ETH's gains exceeding those of BTC, and even cases where ETH surges while BTC weakens, though altcoins still do not collectively launch. The late bull phase represents a period of overall frenzy, with Memes and Shitcoins skyrocketing in succession. Everyone believes this time will be different, but after BTC and ETH reach new highs, market liquidity suddenly retreats, leading to a new round of a bear market.
The bull markets of 2017 and 2021 perfectly validated this logic. In 2017, BTC doubled first, while ETH skyrocketed 15 times in just 7 months during the ICO craze, significantly outperforming BTC. Ultimately, at the end of 2017, BTC surged to $19,600, and ETH reached $1400 in early 2018, after which the market crashed. The bull market in 2021 was the result of a 'policy bull' combined with the DeFi craze. The quantitative easing after the pandemic pushed BTC from $5000 to $10,000, while the DeFi Summer ignited ETH's surge from $200 to $1900, nearly a 10-fold increase. In the end, the bull tail stage saw the frenzy of GameFi, Memes, and various imitation schemes, with both BTC and ETH quickly retreating after reaching historical highs in November 2021, and the market fell back into a bear market.
So is 2025 repeating a similar script? The difference is that the biggest variable in this bull market is the deep entry of institutions. In January 2024, the approval of the BTC spot ETF opened the 'institutional bull market', with BTC rising from $39,000 to $69,000. Although ETH also rose, it still failed to break through its previous high. Then from September to December 2024, the ETH spot ETF officially launched, coupled with favorable policies from Trump’s election, leading to further inflow of Wall Street funds, and the crypto market welcomed a 'BTC+Meme' barbell-style rise. BTC broke through $100,000, ETH broke through $4000, but traditional altcoins did not take off as usual; instead, the Meme phenomenon driven by the pump.fun paradigm prevailed. In early 2025, geopolitical and macro uncertainties led to a significant market correction, with BTC dropping to $75,000 and ETH even falling below $1400. However, by April, BTC restarted its upward trend, breaking through $123,000 in July, and ETH also rose above $3000. This period is actually the 'initial phase of the current bull market.'
After entering mid-July, the market pattern has changed significantly. ETH was the first to break through $4000 and set a new historical high, while BTC gradually weakened from $118,000 to $108,000. Meanwhile, altcoins did not show a general increase. This feature is highly consistent with the characteristics of a bull market: ETH performs strongly, BTC is weak, and altcoins have not yet started. Based on historical experience, a bull market generally lasts 3-6 months. If we take mid-July as the starting point, the current bull market is likely to continue until late September or mid-October. After that, the market may enter the final stage of the bull market, where altcoins and Memes will once again welcome a frenzy, and both BTC and ETH will set new highs until liquidity suddenly withdraws, causing the bull market to abruptly end.
In summary, whether or not institutional forces intervene, the logic of the three-part bull market will remain unchanged. The initial phase belongs to BTC, the middle phase belongs to ETH, and the tail phase belongs to the frenzy of altcoins and Memes. Currently, ETH has clearly outperformed BTC, and the season for altcoins has not yet arrived, so it can be concluded that we are in the mid-stage of the 2025 crypto bull market. In the next two months, ETH is likely to continue to take the lead, while the real frenzy may not fully unfold until after October.
