September 6, 2025 Market Analysis
The latest non-farm data has come out, and the corrections are quite evident from the data. A 25 basis point rate cut on the 16th-17th is almost a done deal. According to this data trend, the market is starting to bet on consecutive rate cuts. However, whether it's the U.S. stock market yesterday or the crypto market's trends, the actual reaction to the data has been relatively mild. At this stage of the rate cut cycle, the short-term impact of sentiment has been weakening, and substantial effects cannot be reflected in the short term. Therefore, I think we shouldn't overly rely on the pace of rate cuts, especially in the crypto market; I believe it should still be based on the 4-year cycle.
Someone raised this question before. Currently, the Federal Reserve's interest rates are still relatively high. Based on the rate of interest cuts, it will take at least another year to reach the bottom. Will the cryptocurrency market continue for more than another year, breaking the four-year cycle law? From BTC's price performance, it seems that pricing power has been seized by Wall Street, which has a significant impact. Therefore, it is possible that the four-year cycle law in the cryptocurrency market could be broken, especially with the reduced output after BTC's next halving, which is very small in proportion to the current circulation. However, if in the next 1-2 months the cryptocurrency market enters a crazy bull market, I would still definitely advise you to withdraw in large quantities. My view is that there is no need to make excessive predictions about the unknown; just operate according to market trends and your own profits.
In terms of the market, there was another wave of short-term sharp decline yesterday. Ethereum almost touched $4500, but then a spike brought it down to $4250, indicating that short-term selling pressure still exists in the market. When will this wave of Ethereum selling spree end? I think we should pay attention to the situation of queued withdrawals from staking. Currently, there are still 700,000 to 800,000 coins waiting to be withdrawn. Considering that some are not necessarily for selling, I believe we have to wait until this number drops below 500,000, ideally below 300,000. However, there is good news: during the previous intensive queue for withdrawals, Ethereum's price withstood the pressure, and the intensive selling has now paused. Next, we just need to wait for the previous selling pressure to be digested.
Originally, it seemed that there was a chance to end the consolidation market this week. However, the number of queued withdrawals from staking surged to over 1,000,000 coins. Therefore, the consolidation period has been extended. According to the current data, the market is expected to end its adjustment next week. But how to say it, we also need to learn to maintain a calm mindset. After all, holding the spot in hand, and the price has an absolute advantage, what harm is there in waiting a bit longer? Moreover, generally speaking, "the longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical." If the current consolidation is a buildup of strength, it will definitely be reflected in the future upward market.
Thank you for your attention and likes.#非农就业数据来袭
